Tag: t_w1r1

[22]excess mortality attributed to Covid19

Posted on by tiger40490

I guess that out of 100 elderly fatalities, there are always a few cases where the family are not really shocked, because the patient has been hanging on for a while and could have been killed by many random hazards.  The family was probably warned that the patient had only a few months of life expectancy. Such a fatality is not an excess mortality.

I used to question PAP government’s mid-2021 decision to carefully open up during Delta wave. I questioned the human cost in terms of fatalities. The Aha moment came when I realized excess mortality in SG was zero during that period.

The livelihood cost of zero-covid is complex, and includes hardship, long-term damage to the local economy, mental health.. Every month the governments pumped in billions to keep businesses on life support. This cost is s not easily measurable. But for the same argument, let’s say it is comparable to 2987 (excess) deaths a year.

What if SG maintains zero-covid and avoids those deaths, but the total mortality over a year remains the same as before covid (around 24,000)? It would mean that those 2987 covid deaths /prevented/ were offset by about the same number of deaths-by-other-causes, deaths that inevitably occur even in an airtight bubble city of zero covid.

It means that, in the grand scheme of things, the (heavy) price we pay in terms of livelihood actually buys us some benefit but not all that much.

Note in different scenario — hospital overrun — then excess mortality would be significant, definitely non-zero.

[21] lowEnergy months: sleep, workout-fatigue

Posted on by tiger40490

 

I discussed this problem with Dr Lau at Icon and Dr Lee at Healthway TPY. Many people dismiss these discussion as unnecessary, but I actually appreciate commonsense discussions. They uncover and spotlight various commonsense.

Sometimes this low-energy becomes an Urgent-n-Important problem (Quadrant-ICU), which is the focus of this blogpost. “Low energy” is Trump’s /diss/ on Jeb Bush, but here I mean something simpler — I feel a reluctance to put in any “effort”.

During my covid quarantine, I felt low energy, for none of these reasons.

Cause AA: I think sleep is a (major or minor) factor in 50% of these ICU cases.

BB: invisible stress (Dr Lau). Incredibly vague 🙂 A Suggestion discussed with Dr Lee of Healthway TPY: make more time for self-care including 1) quiet hours in solitude, and

2) gentle, enjoyable exercise such as jogging, cycling, or group classes. I would be very lucky  if I can find myself keen to enjoy one of these, even though they are the easier workouts.

Most people in my cohort seem to dread most exercises. Some individuals may enjoy a few, but it’s not common. The common reasons are too much to discuss in this blogpost, but I would point out a few — initial hurdle / lack of positive feedback,,,,, spare-time priority,,,,, lack of “really really free” timeslots [with tiny timeslots, we need to learn and sprinkle mini-workouts throughout the day].

— CC: (R.Teo) exercise-fatigue .. such as. chin-up x 100, jump-rope

Excessive workout? All my life, workout feels very different from physical labor and only reduces stress while increasing vitality and confidence.

However, I discussed with R.Teo in CompassOne. One can get emotionally turned off with too many movies, sex, sight-seeing .. or workout. In such a /saturation/ situation, we won’t look forward to the workout. The prospect of daily workout would look dreary, boring. High amount of workout can cause mental fatigue, despite the boost in mental energy and self-confidence. This is a pattern in many individuals.

Similarly, a lot of active learning can increase your brain capacity but also wear you down. Burn-out (mental fatigue) is actually contrary to my perception “memory is a muscle”.

Similarly, lots of musical instrument practice can have both effects .. can lead to fatigue.

broad-stroke characterizatn @学业/HK-expert #wife

Posted on by tiger40490

In broad strokes, I used to describe my wife as notHighlyEducated, but today (X’mas 2021) I told a NCH counsellor “Actually she has a diploma and worked as a preschool teacher, so I was wrong to say she was not well educated”.

In broad strokes, I always described my sister as … not a strong student and didn’t go to a top school. In reality, in some subjects she was possibly a strong student. These details are missed in the broad strokes.

In broad strokes, my wife described boy’s P5/P6 teacher as “graduated from RGS”. She also described LZ.Yu’s 2 gifted kids as NUS-High top students. Well, I don’t know what prestigious college branding they would get in the end.

In broad strokes, I tend to assume international students are more motivated in colleges.

I feel in East Asian societies, such characterizations are powerful and effective, because people are very used to hearing/reading them. The general pubic don’t (care to) know that Princeton/Harvard are not so strong in Comp Science research, so broad stroke characterizations favor the big brands.

— my kids
In broad strokes, I used to describe my son as average in Math, but in late 2021 I realized he is above average (among his cohort) in math, either in Singapore or across developed countries. My broad strokes are too broad .. those characterizatios were implicitly based on myself and the China students either at his age or my age.

In broad strokes, I used to describe my son’s Chinese as very weak, due to effort deficiency. Now I think his speaking/reading skills are well-above average in his Singapore cohort. His writing is not as bad as my earlier characterization. Those Broad strokes are misleading.

In broad strokes, I often describe my daughter as strong in Ch/En but not so strong in math. The latter characterization is possibly unfair to her.

— self-characterization .. In broad strokes, I always describe my math/physics as strong; I used to portray my academic image as “top student up to high school”, but after the UChicago renaissance, I can reuse the broad strokes “top student from primary school to UChicago”. See also

Q: how do I feel about the broad strokes?
A: I know the details, so I don’t need to use broad strokes to “impress myself”. But paradoxically, as I keep using this broad-stroke characterization to present myself to others, it reinforced a positive self-image.

Q: is the positive self-image exaggerated, weakened in the center, 金玉其外败絮其中 and harmful?
A: this self-image is substantiated with certified transcript.

In conclusion, the broad strokes actually help me 1) build a reputation and 2) maintain self-esteem. Now I have a better appreciation of the UChicago brand value, which is higher than CMU, NYU .. in broad strokes !

— top experts (any domain) in US/Japan/Germany
Depending on the field, each of us tends to assume U.S. top experts are world-class in that field.

I think only 2 other countries, Japan and Germany, are universally considered leaders in virtually all fields.

Britain could be a #4. Russia and China are perceived as less integrated into the international community
France? Not perceived as a scientific nation
Most European countries are too small in terms of population.

For all other countries, their national experts are less trusted internationally.

In my first and only visit to Thailand (with my dad), the tour guide brought us to a snake farm, selling snake oil. The presenter was a medical doctor from Hongkong (accent-wise, probably mainland Chinese medical professional working or trained in Hongkong). As soon as we heard he is from Hongkong, we we started paying attention. I asked my father why a Hongkong doctor in a Thailand snake farm.  He said “so that Chinese tourists would believe it”.

obesity: improve public infrastructure

Posted on by tiger40490

Given that the real world won’t improve fast enough for my life and your life, some of us will have more BMI-life-chances due to personal effort, education, access to better jobs/nutrition,,,,

This article seems to play down the importance of individual effort and emphasize the environment factor. This article is a credible argument, but I maintain my perception — effort is the biggest factor within one’s control. Better jobs and better nutrition is also within our control.

— My reflections on https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/obesity-public-health-problem-solutions-weight-loss-2844661, written by a FinancialTimes reporter.

“Obesity is not the cause of a problem, but a symptom. Over the past 50 years, no country has reversed the trend of rising obesity.”

Q: Given the increasing public awareness, consumer education, why are citizens not improving our waistline?

There is now a scientific consensus that whether or not someone becomes overweight is, for the most part, the result of the interplay between genetic predisposition (responsible for around half of variation in body mass index), and environmental factors… The ‘individual responsibility’ idea, that people gain weight due to self-destructive decisions that they can be enlightened out of, has proved false…Obesity shows us primarily what is being done to people, not what people are doing to themselves….”regularity of dietary habit is simply incompatible with irregularity of work and income​​”

Q: why are low-income families more affected by obesity?

The author points to stress, overwork, unreliable income, financial insecurity,,, I feel these factors are indeed important. An outrageous analogy — in an world of increasing work stress, food insecurity, income insecurity, and increasing availability of addictive substances [alcohol, sugary drinks, cakes,,,], is some form of addiction inevitable for most? I guess we already see the widespread addiction to screens, sugary drinks… the curse of our time.

“But if any country is to reverse one of the world’s most stubborn trends, its policymakers must recognize that the solution will come not from haranguing people, but from improving the quality of their lives and their environment.”

Q: will it help if employer (like mine and Macq) provide free fruits in office pantry?

Q: will it help if employer (like mine) provides relaxation facilities in office?
A: I doubt it. I guess most employees prefer to get as far away from office as possible.

Look at the overwhelming amount of food advertising, esp. in malls. How many percent of them are truly healthy like raw veg, whole fruits, skim milk?

Convenience .. is a key factor in our increasingly busy lives. Those convenient locations and food choices are mostly (like 99%) less-than-healthy.

 

Peak-End rule ] rmSelf’s evaluation

Posted on by tiger40490

k_Kahneman

Within the scope of decision-making based on first-hand experiences, D Kahneman shared many insights about the PER [Peak-End rule. Global retrospective evaluation is well predicted by the average of the peak level of *pain* and the experience at the end]

  • My evaluation of my overall sexual life shows peak-end effect + a bit of duration neglect. My evaluation of a single intercourse shows peak-end effect + serious duration neglect.
  • My 2.5Y GS experience had a bad ending but I tend to brush aside the happy days (60%) .. DurationNeglect and PER
  • My 12M Barcap experience had a happy ending but I tend to brush aside the stressful days .. PER and DurationNeglect
  • each outing (with wife, or with any child) had better end on a high note (for the decision-making self…)
  • At the end of intimacy, better (kiss and) get up before she had too much of it. Make the ending less boring and forgettable.
  • UChicago is a good finale (ending on a high note) of my entire education journey. Without it, the entire journey would be remembered as downhill mostly because the NUS Y4 experience. The  FYP had a disproportionate lasting impact, casting a long shadow. The ending has a huge impact on my decision-making self.
  • a delicious dessert ending in a distate or overfill .. can leave a bad memory. Duration neglect !

First impression often lasts a long time, iFF it is also the last impression.

In end-of-life evaluations, historicans, journalists often highlight the ending on a low note, promoting the PER rule. We the readers often forget the hedonimeter total [decades of experienced wellbeing] prior to the decline. Somehow, we assume the final 3 years of relative poverty (average affluence) wipes out the accumulated wellbeing of a lifetime?

— Limitations of PER and Duration Neglect:

  • My MLP job (to a lesser extent, also Mvea, Citi jobs) had long months of comfort and peace. Duration neglect? I don’t think so. I do want to prolong the good periods.
  • Duration of intimacy? No duration neglect!
  • yoga experiences? I agree on the P but not the E in PER.
  • AllianzHY investment? No PER , though the E was dismal

— System 1/2 .. Individual decision making is largely by System 1 and the remembering self. The experiencing self doesn’t have a voice in the decision, and is displaced by the remembering self. This System 1 in action is simplistic and often irrational. Decisions thus made could be regrettable to some extent because the “hedonimeter integral” is still important, not only to the experiencing self, but to my long-term satisfaction. D Kahneman is clear about the last point on P385 [[thinking fast and slow]]. He feels the remembering self is sometimes a lousy decision maker. To counter that error, System 2 can influence the decision so as to honor the future experiencing self. The remembering self would acknowledge the past experiencing self, and would not regret or object.

family: important to xpSelf+rmSelf@@

Posted on by tiger40490

 

k_rmSelf_vs_xpSelf

Conventional wisdom: Many observe that _personal_health_ and one’s _family_ are the top 2 factors to personal wellbeing [11], mostly from the rmSelf’s perspective.

[11] wellbeing = happiness(xpself), satisfaction/fulfilment (rmSelf), short and long term wellbeing, life chances,,,

If your family life is relatively uneventful, without any “collective_suffering” (of multiple members), then your xpSelf probably won’t feel the importance of family. Within the family context, the most widespread collective_suffering  is loss of harmony. Some conflict is healthy and possibly necessary for family bonding, but excessive conflicts create pain and suffering throughout the family. Collective_suffering seems to be the reason why folks agree that family is one of the biggest determinants of wellbeing.

I think the conventional wisdom takes the viewpoint of a person living WITH [2] a family. “Family” mostly refers to 1)kids 2) spouse 3) parents.

  • I would say parents are no longer important to your wellbeing after you leave home, like 18. Many individuals have fulfilling lives without (parents alive, or) parental interactions .. Consider Genn. Consider many friends of mine who lost a parent at a young age. Consider the adults who grew up in a broken family (sometimes worse than no parents).
  • The bond between spouses is loose in 49% of the couples around us. Unlike the other “family bonds”, this one is consensual [by choice] and can be dissolved consensually. Some percentage of married individuals learn to adapt and reduce dependency (of personal wellbeing) on this loose bond. So the real world observations reveal that for close to half the adults, this factor is not as critical as personal wellness is.
  • The most powerful of the 3 “bonds” is with your kids. The more kids you live with, the more attention they demand, therefore they become a bigger factor[11].
  • .. jolt: However, in the real world, many successful [11] individuals have no kids, or don’t live with some of those kids (re-married, divorced, separated, imprisoned). There  are many (realistic) stories where a parent is separated from a biological child for years and then reunites. The parent-child bond then took years of rebuilding. By default, the parent doesn’t feel a strong bond to the lost-n-found child. This observation reveals that for a sizeable percentage of adults, the kids factor is not as critical as personal wellness is.

jolt: As a bachelor, I (evaluative rmSelf) didn’t envy my friends having kids. I only envied those with a sexually attractive spouse (Now I have mine 😉 because the sexual need I felt was not conditional on a prior experience living with someone for years and building the bond. See [19]feel`lucky+satisfied as bachelor,now again as married man

jolt: on many days, our hedonimeter would reveal that we derive more satisfaction from friendship, professional engagement, or solitude, rather than family life. Such an observation is often shallow, shortsighted, and transient, but so is the xpSelf and the hedonimeter by definition.

[2] Many get used to living away with loved ones… Re my U.S. experiences.

In conclusion, xpSelf doesn’t really suffer from the absence of kids or spouse. For some individuals, even the rmSelf would agree with the xpSelf.

— loss .. Suppose your personal wellbeing is modelled as a bank deposit account. The relative weight of an “asset” is revealed when you lose this “asset”, be it wellness or family.

If you lose part of your health vs part of your wellness, which loss is easier to cope with? Losing a body part is a long-term disability, comparable to disability in the family. In contrast, death in the family might be simpler.

If you lose entire family vs entire wellness (very rare), which loss is easier to cope with? Chris Reeve’s experience suggests that wellness disasters are much harder.

— The case of my maternal grandpa …. He lived with two wives in one home (initially two homes). Did the wives suffer in terms of experienced wellbeing? I doubt it. Did the children (including my mom and my aunts/uncles) experience anything related to so-called “broken-family”? Probably not, because such a set-up was common at the time. In fact, the set-up reflected the wealth of the family, and wealth does provide wellbeing during childhood (up to early adulthood). The net “measurable” loss of wellbeing[xpSelf and rmSelf] was probably zero, compared to the measurable impact of illness, poor sanitation, or incomplete education.

Q: did my mom have a bonding with her dad? Remember my maternal grandpa had 6 daughters and 3 sons, from two wives. I guess the bonding was not as deep as my daughter feels. However, my mom [rmSelf] had a good childhood, and didn’t feel unloved by her dad. My mom spoke of him always in loving words. I have reason to believe my grandpa was a loving father.

This one case study, in my family tree, is a powerful evidence that “family” is not such a huge factor on par with wellness. I would say the same about rmSelf or the xpSelf.

— out of sight, out of mind.. Imagine that you have lived alone (or in a second marriage) and have not seen your kids and spouse for 10Y. You don’t know their health or financial pains, so to your “family” isn’t a huge factor on par with health.

Some men have multiple wives and long-term mistresses, and many kids in different cities. Such a father can’t really have a real relationship with his kids (or his multiple partners) who don’t live with him. Such relationships require time and physical presence. I think he may find fulfilling companionship in one or a few individuals, but his sexual partners may not be among them.

— modification .. of the conventional wisdom. “Family [kids, marriage] is a top 2 factor[11] iFF you live with your loved ones, with collective_suffering. The size of that live-in family determines the weight of this factor. “

As a consequence, to many individuals , family is a much smaller factor, ranked below pff, job satisfaction or friendship.

WPAPP[def]: search+!SearchBox

Posted on by tiger40490

Wpapp is the WP Admin “Posts” page. Wpapp1 is the first page and by far the most precious page. How can we improve  it?

  • show [199<-999] bposts on Wpapp1
  • use longer bpost tiles .. so as to /pack/ more content into each list item on Wpapp
  • use more tags .. but too many tags on one bpost may “bulge” to 5 rows. May need to (re AdminColumn) widen the tags column

— search on Wpapp1 +!searchBox .. is a technique proven over the years.

The bpost must 1) have a memorable title[2] and 2) post-dated into “recent history” (rather than pushed to the 2nd page). Under these /perfectConditions/, I can keyboard-search and find it without the (inferior) SearchBox.

After the search, am still on WPAPP1 ! This last point is signficant and explains why I tend to avoid the SearchBox subconsciously for years. It also explains why I don’t prefer the Sticky/Draft links or 0project_tag. The WPAPP is precious.

[2] if you can only remember some memorble words in the _content_ of a bpost, then you must use the SearchBox, and exit Wpapp1.

If a bpost is searchable on Wpapp1, then it need not occupy top 10 slots, and can be #55 on Wpapp

— place holders .. should be reachable [3] without searchBox, but should not take up too much precious real estate on Wpapp1.

Outside top 20, but repeatedly available within first page i.e. top N (configurable)

[3] If not reachable, then when I need to (quickly) create a bpost I would end up using the default New button.

Christopher Reeve

Posted on by tiger40490

 

k_Kahneman

See also https://btv-open.dreamhosters.com/45310/blogg-topic-prefer-well-published-stories/

Q: If you were Robin Williams or a family member, would you prefer your friend to BB) die a quick, painless death soon after the accident, or AA) live the 10Y longer life that Reeve lived?

For many outsiders, we would choose BB… A short but glorious life like the NUS professor Lee Loo Hay. As Kahneman pointed out, PeakEndRule and DurationNeglect.

For Reeve’s children who were born before the accident, and his wife, the choice is clear. Kids need the father.

If I am the parent of a victim like Reeve, I would prefer AA unless my son is stuck in a comma. I would cheer him up (just as Robin did) and encourage his fighting spirit. For a fighter, there’s nothing to loose, and there’s so much to gain. The pain and suffering will subside over time, as Buddha observed.

Clearly, Reeve himself preferred AA. He fought for years to live longer, after he came to terms with this chronic condition.

— U-index .. (defined in this bpost) His U-index was probably no worse than ordinary people. This U-index is hard to comprehend because we outsiders always compare.. compare such a “limited” life with our normal lives. However, Reeve probably doesn’t live in that comparison. The comparison with his own past was probably not a constant backdrop. He had jobs to do, including parenting, film production, writing.

If you stay busy and focused on goals, then you probably end up comparing less. I assume those comparisons have a net negative impact on xpSelf’s wellbeing, and rmSelf’s wellbeing.

— side question: Is the disaster a white swan or a misstep? Not exclusively, but a combination.

My prediction — the more we perceive it as our own misstep, the less we attribute it to back luck or other people’s mistakes, the earlier we would come to terms with it, and take responsibility to rebuild our life.

 

##wkend ff trip=值得even if!!work done

Posted on by tiger40490

Even if I don’t actually work for more than 2 minutes on a weekend trip to office, it is still a good habit, because …
benefit: the trip creates the opportunity to work. Beside work,

  • benefit: better workout facilities than at home. At home I could do the same workouts, but less likely [less motivation, more resistance, more obstacles,,,]
  • benefit: easier diet control in office … still true in 2022
  • benefit: superior blogg infrastructure, including aircon
  • benefit: I could call Beijing more easily… rather important to the old parents

Although smallish in each item, these tiny benefits count during my current ezlife phase. They add up to a real Lifestyle 升

Similarly, Parents often buy gears to create the opportunity for kids to discover a personal interest.

Similarly, I told many friends that I often go to stadium without a target of how much workout I must complete. Instead, I go there to create the opportunity for myself.