Tag: t_othRisk

specific topics prone to overthinking, but not ABOUT overthink

[[道德底线]]

Posted on by tiger40490

The plot is built on a series of rare coincidences, as if the entire city has a population below 1000. I said the same about [[MySister]].

None of the key characters had any regard for basic safety and damage control. Their reckless actions enabled the situation to grow worse and bigger, hurting more and more people.

— In WJT’s shoes… (more comparable to my own age and family structure)

First off, he committed a harmful sexual assault. Even if the women is a drunken prostitute paid by his client, it’s a crime to /assault/ a semiconscious person, but in the court, it’s nearly impossible to prove “nonconsensual” beyond reasonable doubt.

2) Priority is damage control, to protect 1) his wife and daughter 2) the rape victim 3) himself [his family and dad loves him and needs him to stay strong]. He needs protection by a competent lawyer. His wellbeing, his family and its members, his career are all at stake, but he didn’t get sufficient protection. (In this contrived story, his own family members and colleagues are not suitable advisors — they don’t even know about privacy and confidentiality.)

His lawyer would probably point out his Achilles heel and focus thereon. He could seek to settle out of court with a large sum… would protect him from the big legal consequences.

His lawyer would also point out the lack of evidence. Evidence of nonconsensual. Evidence of penetration. Evidence of who performed penetration. His lawyer could argue that CX came into WJT’s room, stripped naked, and lied down beside him, pretending to be drunken, giving implicit consent.

CX is the only witness, but look at her character and motive. She is not out to get him. There’s no real hate. So a sincere apology and an out-of-court settlement could be enough for her, and he needs to cut all ties and relocate his family if necessary.

3) If needed, he needs to come clean with his wife (no one else). This is a lot lighter than an affair. If wife demands a divorce then he has to deal with it, but look at her character and her situation. She is not crazy and won’t go for divorce. Again, they need to eliminate all interactions with CX or ZXP, and relocate if necessary.

4) In this contrived story, he is exposed to hazardous interactions with ZXP and CX. His lawyer and his protective instinct should tell him to eliminate those hazards immediately. His daughter need to change school immediately. He need to quit the loan project immediately and have no influence on it. He should also consider changing job, to further reduce the ZXP hazard. If this city is so small, then he needs to relocate his family. It’s possible given his financial and professional background.

5) CX should not inform WJT about the pregnancy, but if she informs him, then he can discuss his legal choices with his lawyer. He can probably sign legal papers to remain unknown to the child. He can turn down all paternity tests and, if necessary, relocate his family and become unreachable. This is necessary if CX (appears to) threaten to /weaponize/ the pregancy.

In conclusion,  throughout the trials and tribulations, he needs to keep cool and stay strong. This is Not the worst possible disaster. Life has to go on, and his family needs him to stay healthy and strong.

In this contrived story, WJT lost his mind as a thinking adult, when he continued the hazardous interactions (with ZXP and CX), without regard to basic safety. This is unthinkable of any adult.

— In CX’s shoes ..
She needs to know how much there is to lose and commit to limit the loss/damage/pain up to that point, not beyond that Limit. Beyond that limit, there was much more to lose than the marriage. (In fact the marriage didn’t exist in the beginning, and was actually a very small loss if she had given it up or postpone it for 3 years to let things cool down.) In some cases, it could lead to a broken family at WJT, or a manslaughter by ZXP, or multiple deaths of the aged parents.

She didn’t see the limit as life-n-death. Big mistake.

Immediately after the mistake, the stakes were much lower and the Limit quite tolerable:

  • There was no child in the beginning (simpler situation).
  • The WJT family is completely outside her life
  • No one would get to know it beyond the immediate family. It was similar to a bride-to-be who was sexually assaulted years ago. Not much of a reputation risk to ZXP’s family.
  • She had relatively low duty to protect ZXP, having known him for 3Y only. Legally, it was just a boyfriend who intended to marry her.

In contrast, she had a duty to do her part for her parents and other loved ones. Last but not least, she has a duty to be kind to herself, which is what her parents wanted when they brought her up. She doesn’t need to care much about those in-laws or the wife/daughter of WJT. She doesn’t owe them anything. Priority was completely distorted in this fictional character.

As she agreed to become a legal wife and daughter-in-law, the stakes suddenly became much higher. As she decided not to relocate, the stakes became even higher. As she decided against abortion, the stakes became still higher.

( CX was completely irrational when she blames herself for all the silly thoughts/actions of other individuals after the event. Those individuals over-react, so they are responsible for the fallouts. )

The worst damage was 1) her own wellbeing and reputation (mian4zi) 2) her original family’s reputation 3) her husband’s feelings. The other damages are LG2. Her school is a big place full of embarrassments and scandals and it’s not her duty to protect the school (it’s not her family!).

Now if the husband turns out to be an emotional shipwreck beyond repair, then she has a tough choice. Again, ZXP is not her child, but an adult with his own (deep) problems. A reasonable husband is expected to manage his own traumatic reactions, and be a solid support for the spouse who is in real trauma. ZXP is a crying baby torturing the spouse who is still bleeding from the innocent mistake. So CX can dump him without guilt.. would reduce suffering for everyone, and esp. the worst damages listed.  Alternatively, CX can keep the marriage, but on an adult-adult basis:

  • the in-laws must behave reasonably, otherwise the couple move out
  • the couple makes joint decisions about relocation. If no agreement, then CX should have the right to stay in another city in the interim. This relocation is crucial to damage control. Indeed, CX spent 3Y in Tibet, but only after lots of preventable damages were done. Why not relocate in the beginning.
  • CX has the sole right to decide on abortion.
  • CX has the sole right to decide to skip the official wedding, because she is in trauma.

health^healthcare -fund^-infra

Posted on by tiger40490

— ranking by level of effective control

  1. healthcare fund … easy to accumulate and control
  2. personal wellness habits .. takes huge, lifelong effort, but very much within my control
  3. — above are within my circle of control; below are within my circle of influence
  4. health condition for the next 50Y .. I see it as fate, luck, in-born 体质
  5. (effective use of) healthcare infrastructure .. I can analyze the systems (including bx) and design my strategy

— Ranking by importance

  1. personal wellness habits
  2. healthcare infrastructure in the local community
  3. healthcare fund
  4. current health condition

The infrastructure is more valuable than the fund because a poor system would cost you a bomb.

We tend to spend lots of time thinking about the healthcare fund….

prudent estimates #HF.Sun

Posted on by tiger40490

Hi (name removed for privacy),

I think you are more precise in your estimate than other people, so let me improve my precision of the estimates I shared with you. I was formally trained as an engineer and mathematician, so I appreciate your precision.

— You mentioned a friend aspired to generate enough dividend income to replace salary. I estimated 4% dividend yield for her (or him). That’s too conservative.

I like U.S. stocks. Some reputable U.S. stocks pay higher dividends than 4%. A less pessimistic estimate is 5%. To support SGD 60k/Y family burn rate, SGD 1.2M needs to go into stocks. How many of us can afford to invest SGD 1.2M into stocks , stop working and live on the dividend income indefinitely?  I still feel this plan is impractical.

In many stories, a dividend stock can grow in NAV. Your friend may buy at $100 and receive 4% yield, while the stock grows to $150, paying out $6 a year, i.e. 6% yield computed from initial investment. However, based on my observation, I believe such success stories are rare even in the U.S.

High growth and dividend yield seldom co-exist. Your friend must be lucky (or skilled) to hit such a hero stock.

U.S. dividends are taxable incomes, but I’m unfamiliar. I did receive tax return documents from my U.S. broker, showing the dividend incomes. Assuming 20% marginal tax rate, then the 5% dividend yield becomes effectively 4%.

— We discussed cash payout “yield” and You asked about mine in my portfolio. I bought (or in the process of receiving) rental properties, private equities (i.e. high yield debts), stocks, unit trusts … paying above 4%. ( I will exclude those investments paying out below 1%. ) So a more precise average payout is 6-7%. A more conservative estimate is 5-6%.

My “weighted average” calculation is dominated by realized rental income. Realized rental income is much lower than gross rental income, due to vacancy, commission, taxes, FX conversion, condo fees etc.

I think Singapore private residential properties are unlikely to generate 4% realized rental yield. However, Singapore property NAV often grows, so realized rental yield could grow beyond 4%. Not familiar. I don’t think the rental amount grows as fast as NAV.

I used 4% as a benchmark partly because CPF-SA/MA/RA pays 4%, also because the U.S. mainstream view on dividend uses 4% as a criteria for high-dividend.

— I estimated my developer career to end in my 70’s. It might end in my late 60’s, depending on demand and my health.
Some WallSt developer colleague (Shanghai guy in his 50’s or 60’s)  told me “If you enjoy coding, then you can work remotely, so colleagues don’t care about your age.” This theory will extend my developer career by a few years, but I don’t look forward to telecommuting.

— My target life span is 95 years. I will not give a more prudent estimate. (Prudent means planning for longer lifespan like 99.) Instead of “more prudent”, here is a more substantiated estimate:

https://www.singstat.gov.sg/find-data/search-by-theme/population/death-and-life-expectancy/visualising-data/lifeexpectancy shows that for a male Singaporean of my age, there’s a 11% projected likelihood to live till 95. If I am among the 11% most long-living males in my age group, then I would hit my target.

Q: how many percent of Singapore guys in my age group can work till their 70’s in a white-collar knowlege intensive job?
A: I think it’s below 11%, perhaps mostly in legal, architecture, healthcare(钟南山, same age as my dad), academic/education (like my father and many of his classmates)…

Therefore, my dev-till-70 career longevity goal is harder than my live-till-95 longevity goal. My father said both targets are realistic, if I work towards them. I believe my father and I believe in myself.

https://www.cpf.gov.sg/Members/Schemes/schemes/retirement/cpf-life sayd 1/3 of Singaporeans would live beyond 90. I think this 33% is a conditional probability given that “you are a Singaporean aged 65 now, regardless of health or age”

学习^behavior^超重: parent’s worst headache@@

Posted on by tiger40490

For a typical parent, which headache is tougher?

  • AA: Academic disappointments at my son’s mild level
  • BB: health issues such as weight, fitness,,, at my son’s mild level
  • CC: smartphone addiction at my son’s mild level

I feel at a worse level, AA would be harder as the consequence is bigger, affecting many family decisions.

BB and CC are less likely to become severe.

Therefore, I feel lucky that my main concern (CC) is not that hard.

some Americans must Want to be successful

Posted on by tiger40490

Q: does everyone in your immediate family want to be successful?
A….

During the 2020 presidential campaign, Jared Kushner commented on African Americans. I don’t think he defined “success”. Here I list a few defining elements , half ranked by note-worthiness

  1. various life chances
  2. [e] safe clean housing
  3. [e] education.. as a pathway to realize individual potentials
  4. — the broad, familiar elements
  5. health .. drugs
  6. financial .. employment, debt, househoold income

[e= See also my blogpost real essentials4livelihood ]

— self-management and ownership .. “want” is a motivation. For the motivation to bear fruits, it has to be persistent, adaptive, resilient.

I feel a lot of Americans (and Asians too) are poor with self-management. It’s most visible in spending, diet, addictions,… They don’t seem to take ownership of their own lives.

I need to stress this point with my kids.

The most important teacher for a young kid is probably the parents. The parents have the best chance to influence the motivation, the self-management habits.

##[20←07]factors underpinn changes{1st summer]U.S.

Posted on by tiger40490

k_tectonic

See also

The trigger — After revisiting my 2007 email/diary such as big cities more expensive @@ #LS, I wanted to write yet another review of the fundamental factors that Explain (or has Driven) all the  major changes in my life. Not to become yet-another review, let’s focus more on the factors, less on the changes.

Am I exaggerating anything? Any acute attachment to beware? Beware of othRisk. Avoid polishing.

My focus continues to be family livelihood, not FOMO, exclub, peerComparison, brank,,, A second focus in this blogpost is my own American dream as of summer 2007.

  • [j] #1 factor — my tech expertise and delivery skill — in the lucrative and prosperous tech (dev+) job market, esp. on age-friendly WallSt.
  • [f] #2 factor — my brbr /discipline/ — while witnessing my own income growing so much since 2007. I think this is similar to Singapore government’s discipline.
  • #3 factor — SG citizenship — relative decline of America’s appeal to me, and relative rise of Singapore’s advantages. I value my citizenship much more than between 2007 and 2016 !
  • factor — wellness — habits, health conditions (体质)…. The absense of health issues is like the absence of family problems, absence of investment woes, absence of career failures. An invisible dome surrounding Hogwarts in the final Harry Potter movie.
  • [j] fundamental but minor factor — WallSt trec as a passport through the moat
  • [f] minor factor — Beijing + Blk177 property appreciation, rental yield of overseas properties
  • fundamental but minor factor — my English skill — helps my job interviews and job performance, esp. compared to my Chinese and Indian peers. English writing skill is instrumental to my self-help while coping with challenges
  • fundamental but minor factor — my relatively low racial bias — I think my Indian colleagues like me a bit more than other China colleagues
  • fundamental but commonplace — my love[sacrifice] for wife and kids

Now let’s list the major changes since 2007 and try to explain them

  • change in my life — confidence in marriage — was untested in 2007, with pretty high inherent risk of failure based on statistics. We have worked on the problems and weak spots.
  • [f] measurable change — brbr — Despite my bigger family (with 2 noisy kids), my current brbr and Fuller wealth (ffree) are so much higher than in 2007, partly due to brbr discipline, salary, SG citizenship , nonwork income, ,
  • change in my life — livelihood resilience/security — stronger (and growing), with layers of defense, giving my much higher confidence than 2007. I was already healthy in 2007, but now I’m /buffered/ on many fronts such as career longevity, strong marriage, citizenship
  • specific change — Green Card dream — is a bit lower than 2007, mostly due to my new view of SG^US. Nowadays, I don’t feel as desperate about GC as my China/India colleagues.
  • [j] specific but minor change — c++ in my peers — is no longer 高不可及. Ditto low-latency java
  • [j] specific but minor change — WallSt moat — was seen as too deep and wide back in 2007
  • specific but minor change — car purchase — was widely known as inevitable back in 2007. Now I know better from experience.
  • internal change — target 95 as life expectancy — now I want to live longer. This is exactly where I want to be.
  • internal change — internally mellowing up — and more optimistic. Even though my position among my peers is much higher than in 2007, I now care more about family livelihood, less about FOMO, brank, income, net worth, OC-effective, exclub
  • [j] internal change — churn, accumulation of experience — I didn’t have solutions, cool confidence… as explained in risks remain high but am calmer
  • [j] change — long-horizon income security — was low for decades as everyone around me said developers must move up to management by some age 35, and struggle to keep the job and maintain the income until its eventual decline. Now I have 50% more confidence, primarily due to WallSt experience
  • [f] minor change in my life — balance sheet — I am now proud owner of Singapore, Beijing properties + some commercial properties, all in prime locations. We are on track to receive a reliable and high-yield annuity backed by a credit rating comparable to the most trusted insurer.
  • [d=detachment needed]
  • [f=personal finance]
  • [j=career]

##[19]a few games I Aced Visibly #MSFM,belly

Posted on by tiger40490

k_soul_search

Title is lousy. No point improving it.

I /aced / killed/ many games. Most visible and most profitable game in this list is tech IV, including

  • 1a) branching out to c# and c++
  • 1b) quant self-study to impress many technology interviewers

The above topic already has many many posts in my blogs. Below are other games I excelled in:

  1. excellent grades up to college Year 1
  2. Earned MSFM with flying colors at age 42 — sustained focus, self mastery
  3. paid off multiple rental properties + my own home, by age 43. All in good locations with reliable rental demand.

Some domains are not really competitive “games” and beyond the scope of this blogpost, but still I excelled visibly:

  1. no belly (as Nick pointed out); weight loss in late 2018, along with pull-up. Jogging habit.
  2. keeping burn rate very low, and achieving some form of ffree around age 30 and again at 43

It’s instructive to recognize the pattern.

  • I think in each game, I had some talent, and a long-term consistent effort.
  • External positive feedback is far from powerful , immediate or frequent, so internal motivation is crucial.
  • All are individual games, not team games. Note promotion is not my game and I don’t need to kill this game to be comfortable and satisfied.

FOMO ^ blessings to cherish: +/-ve peer comparison

Posted on by tiger40490

Comparison with the less fortunate makes us grateful (and yes, humble), but I reject endless peer comparison.

Q: How do you square this circle?
A: I don’t have a good short answer. I basically follow the feedback loop — increase those efforts having good result, and avoid actions that proved harmful

  • I actively reject FOMO
  • I actively remind myself to compare with the less fortunate

Given my bare-bones ffree, I feel blessed … when comparing to those (richer or poorer) without ffree. However, my ffree is bare-bones, so I remind myself to avoid benchmarking with the rich.

Compare across, not compare up — a “sound” sound byte?

 

G3 practical knowledge #gadget

Posted on by tiger40490

This question has long-term implications on time allocation, bandwidth allocation, prioritization…

Q: excluding professional knowledge, what’s the most useful practical knowledge?
A: #1 is wellness knowledge including self-care.

presonal finance including tax, mortgage? 2nd tier useful knowledge?

digital know-how? 2nd tier

general scentific knwledge? Less useful than digital know-how in practical everyday life

parenting? more like insight than knowledge

home repair? Yes userful, but More like skill then knowledge.

##locus@control: carefree high ground mostly due2effort

Posted on by tiger40490

The Locus-of-control question — Q: is my current carefree high ground mostly due to (NN) 努力 i.e. effort or (XX) eXternal factors such as inborn talent, karma, dumb luck, timing without analysis etc?

This question is NOT academic or egocentric. Like the explanatory styles explored in [[learned optimism]], this perception-of-reality could shape individual behavior. NN answer leads to internal locus of control, and XX answer leads to external locus of control.

In reality, answer is never precise like 51% A + 49% B. Instead, I prefer a simple binary system — either mostly-NN or mostly-XX. Pattern: most of the success stories below hinge on personal effectiveness and self-management, rather than leadership or interpersonal capabilities.

— Warning: If you attribute success to NN or talent, you may sound cocky, conceited, vain
— How about the G5 personal winning bets? They sound like mostly luck. Well, For most of the winning bets, I had to work hard to make it a winning bet.
In general, I believe we can’t rely on PAST lucky bets. We face so many decisions at every stage of our life and have no choice but keep betting and keep improving our betting skill (analysis..)

Therefore, winning at these bets is mostly personal effort.

How about the poster child — the lucky investments? I think they are the exception that prove the rule. 1) You need analysis and accumulation of capital 2) Those who over-rely on luck is likely to lose it. Luck seems to favor the diligent.
— now the big list

  • [d=conscious detachment needed]
  • ==== sgCitizenship? XX [timing]
  • ==== [d] stable marriage? mostly XX [luck] but some personal effort
  • ==== academic achievements? Mostly NN, esp. in taking up MSFM.
  • ==== emerging freedom from FOLB/FOMO (XR, CSY…)? NN [[analysis]]
  • ==== my brbr, Fuller wealth, my cashflow high ground amid covid19 job insecurity? NN
  • ==== MLP job
  • — [d] excellent commute? mostly XX but I insisted on buying a location with short commute
  • — [d] flexible hours? mostly XX but I also work weekends and evenings
  • — [d] reasonable workload? XX
  • ==== wellness
  • — flexibility: above average for guys, due to NN .. huge uphill battle
  • — no illness for years? XX
  • — cholesterol under control? NN
  • — [d] relatively few bone (+joint) problems? mostly XX but jogging improves bone density
  • — [d] eyesight stable? XX
  • — hair loss not leading to baldness? XX
  • — memory aging not so fast? XX but I do keep my brain active
  • — good sleep and vitality? XX
  • — excellent heart health? XX
  • — [d] excellent dental health? mostly NN
  • — [d] excellent sexual health? mostly XX but exercise does help a lot

==== [d] BMI green zone?
— NN. Without a harmful starvation diet, reaching [1] a target weight is damn hard for everyone (exceptions are trivial) so I ought to seriously celebrate my achievements. I think this achievement is comparable to my c++ interview improvements or getting into UChicago MSFM program. 40% luck + 60% effort.

[1] “Reaching” means maintaining for 7 days. This criteria excludes crash diet and water weight effect. I stayed within 136.4 lbs longer than a week. Maintaining a target weight for 6M is even harder and is 99% effort, but let’s not digress.

Resilience against temptations? Tough efforts.

— XX (Let’s ignore those who don’t try to slim down.) Apparently, 20% of us can slim down to a healthy BMI. The #1 factor seems to be external.
Assumption: our effort levels are mostly comparable, but each “resistance” level is different. So those who make it are lucky. 50% luck + 50% effort.

In my case, the effort level is much higher than others.
==== cashflow high ground
— [d] barebones ffree? NN
— retirement planning? mostly NN with some XX [sgCitizenship]
— housing portfolio and reasonable plan? NN [analysis] with some luck at #04-116
==== career longevity and health
— slowly growing confidence with large codebase in greenfield or brown field? NN
— explosive demand for global tech talent? XX
— tech IV success? Mostly NN. I think many people have comparable talent but don’t have my position.
— [d] java? some XX [luck] but why am i head and shoulders above other candidates?
— c++? NN
— CIV? mostly NN though I had some innate talent which needed a lot of polishing.