Tag: t_othRisk

specific topics prone to overthinking, but not ABOUT overthink

##[22]increase^reduce: t-allocation ] ezlife #starv`=optimal

Posted on by tiger40490

Fact: for some of us, we always feel insufficient allocation to this or that aspects of our lives. (To be fair, occasionally we do feel some over-allocation.)

Our t-allocation decisions are dynamic, fluid and largely run by System1, therefore never precise and /impeccable/. I feel the need to constantly review my allocation decisions over short and long histories, and adjust. I mean Allocation of time + System2 resources [attention, energy, absorbency…] The higher ground I want to push toward is a situation where I find very few items constantly starved/underserved, and ideally the short-term “starvation” is more evenly spread out across [3].
On this higher ground, I would really remember a few (temporary) success stories of adjustment. The success stories empower me to endeavor to correct/adjust my allocation strategy, and avoid the familiar “powerless guilt” driven by the /tyranny/ of perfectionism.

[3] Aha-Insight: starvation=optimal. Simultaneous sunshine/time starvation across multiple tectonic_plates is the essence of optimal allocation. This observation is similar to the “simultaneous saturation” in optimization.

Since 2022,

  • I have decreased tech xx including deep_work, compared to years ago (partly due to diminishing return), replaced with practical scripting, automation, localSys,,, nearly optimal
  • .. Whenever I spend some spare time on QQ or CIV, I do feel fitter, “more prepared”
  • I have 🙂 reduced fren dialog t-spends and created temporary starvation… optimal
  • I have 🙂 maintained workout t-spends .. optimal
  • I have 🙂 increased family time, esp. with boy and meimei .. nearly optimal
  • I have experienced increasing demand (on my Sys2 resources) from BGC, Cambodia, US tax, US stocks, USD TD, calc recon on EGA/RBBT,, nearly optimal
  • I have increased blogg (and other efforts) as self-care…. nearly optimal. As noted in the blogpost on I-statement, my type of blogging is not easy, not lazy, takes training and effort.

^^ Now I don’t feel the burn [self-discipline, with materialistic gains]
My father, in his twilight years, would probably prefer quiet peaceful time,,, not burn.

Perhaps my current t-allocation is nearly /optimal/, based on the successE definition

jolt: now I have relatively limited bandwidth allocated to tech learning or work projects. In contrast, MSFM period was visibly high intensity “burning” but in hind sight, was it worthwhile?

Q: how do we make this blogpost more unique, rather than just another t-allocation blogpost?

In the current life stage marked by carefree job, brbr, fulltime wife taking care of 2 kids,,,, I see an interesting array of initiatives competing for limited absorbency and bandwidth (in terms of time,  mental energy)

I don’t know if my carefree life has brought me to this new “comfort zone”. I used to feel the traction/engagement/accu on tech learning, wellness, parenting. Most of these “domains” require effort or absorbency. I felt the burn and ROTI. Since 2020 (?) my focus has gravitated towards per-finance. Sometimes I’m pulled into news or curiosity searches. See the sink.

It’s always useful to pair up a Increase piece with a Reduce piece.
=====

  • — Reduce
  • [v] reduce/maintain t-allocation to the growing fuxi items in git-blog
  • ?slow down blogging outside the specified topics below — git blogging, blog review
  • reduce friend sharing
    • [v] meet-up is most time-consuming. Always prefer jogging before meet-up.
    • [v] slow down email; reduce t-allocation to email backlog .. Nearly optimal
  • reduce and postpone per finance like SIA, FSM, FWD,,,  I feel this is growing and taking up more and more bandwidth.
  • [v] reduce news reading/watching — a popular, approved diversion. In the carefree phase, it may be more practical to allocate some spare time to these legitimate leisure.
    • [v] reduce leisure reading despite my growing library of free books.. Nearly optimal
    • [v] reduce or warehouse curiosity searches. Optimal
  • —- now the domains
  • — wellness
  • [an s3] maintain (increase if possible) jogging, or increase t-efficiency with shorter workouts as substitute
  • [n] more frequent yoga. more classes? Time consuming and stressful due to penalty. Perhaps wait till restrictions relax
    • ([a] maintain yoga self-practice)
  • [n s2] maintain nutritional research and experiment
  • — parenting
  • slow down: read more books on parenting
  • review my blog
  • ? bring kids out more often
  • — career/安身立命
  • [a s1] c++ critical mass maintenance — thick-> thin, 温故知新. Decline is probably faster than coding drill, therefore more strategic.
  • [an s1] coding drill refresh — to keep in shape, 温故知新. As I told ChengShi, I had an ideal of continuous practice which may demand a lot of absorbency and concentration. Is it sustainable?
  • [an s1] more localSys fuxi — I had the bigGun/laserGun concepts, among many blogposts that I revisited. I may need to remove some other “initiatives” so as to concentrate on localSys
  • — other
  • [a=absorbency required]
  • [s1~s3=strategic value. “Not strategic” by default ]
  • [n=candidate as a new driver]
  • [v=starvation can be optimal]

white^black swan(def) ]%%blogg #predictability

Posted on by tiger40490

 

Repeatedly, I have found that Taleb’s criteria for black swan are way too complicated, abstract, with too many parts, and simply too long, for most lay public users of this metaphor. Therefore, users everywhere have rebelled (against Taleb), abandoned his criteria, and adopted simpler criteria. Therefore, imprecision and inconsistency (in criteria) is widespread.

The phrases “black swan” and “white/grey swan” have, to varying degrees, widespread usage in my blogs and in public domain, but horribly imprecise/vague. Not to deviate too much from original criteria, but also not to get bogged down by it, I will briefly contrast these 2 phrases as used in my blogs. Because white swans are less rare, there must be more examples of them, perhaps more in my blogs.

  • —— Black swan events are  A) rare and C) massive[1], with lasting impact on communities, B) NOT easily predictable/foreseeable, even though official definition says “absolutely unpredictable/unforeseeable”
  • eg: WSC harbor shrinks, but becoming less competitive thanks to web2.0 attracting young tech talents away
  • eg: finIT domain losing pole position to web2.0 and other tech employers
  • eg: epa job : WLB[workload, timelines, commute,,], appr [expectations, comp as an indicator]. I might settle down as a long-timer.
  • eg: Blk 177 massive appreciation
  • eg: SG tech teams adopting telecommuting, remote hiring, just like U.S.
  • eg: MLP long-timers retrenched without obvious underperformance
  • eg: difficulty for foreigner SWE to get Sg EP
  • eg: rising salary at this age
  • —— White (and grey) swan events are A) less rare than black swans B) easily foreseeable even without hindsight, but usually came as a surprise due to poor planning. I will add another criteria C) less massive
  • eg: quick ascent of NUS and esp. NTU
  • eg: China salary and rEstate levels rising too fast towards (or exceed) SG level, but work condition deteriorating
  • eg: my marriage crisis
  • eg: rate of marriage failure around me
  • eg: 2022 peak in our intimacy .. rewarding, fulfilling, and then growing dependency on pills
  • eg: credit events in my HY/PE, and Megaworld unscrupulous practices
  • eg: covid19 as an earthquake
  • eg: my family’s net asset [BVxD] growing fast by 300k/Y
  • eg: hardworking colleagues let go for no apparent reason

By definition, there are more white swans than black swans in my life, but this phrase is too weak and unimaginative. I used this phrase only when comparing black swan event.

Unexpected success ..

— [1] massive impact .. I often say “little white swans” for less massive swan events. “Little black swan” is also plausible.

By default, and in common usage, black swans all have massive, lasting impacts on many people.

[18]3common stressors4 U.S.middle class like me #bad commute

Posted on by tiger40490

to be absorbed into another bpost?

  1. cashflow for livelihood
    • not enough savings for children’s education
    • lack of home-ownership -> net rental outlay? Not an unbearable stress.
  2. work stress
    • see separate blog post
  3. 2H+ commute eating up time for exercise, family, rest.. In NY most of these guys simply accept the long commute. Not me! I feel the higher salary is a poor bargain.

–outside the top 3:

  • weight, diet and health conditions that have to be actively managed
  • kids school problem — not so serious

tww+todo list: priorities #promote phone #0.txt

Posted on by tiger40490

k_X_upkeep

In each phase of my life, my priorities and requirements change. My todo list always includes a tww list. Current priorities:

  1. durability .. bpost > git_0_txt > smartphone > smemo
  2. easy update .. smemo ~ smartphone::jot > 0_txt > bpost
  3. easy to print .. git_0_txt > bpost
  4. For think-while-walking, smartphone::voice > smemo > printout of git_0_txt  > smartphone::jot> printout of bpost
  5. info-radiator .. hardcopy > smartphone
  6. infrastructure uptime .. bpost hosters like dreamhost/bluehost have more frequent blackouts than github

Single todo list (like git_0_txt-only or bpost-only) ..  is the ideal but unlikely to be optimal.

E-update is the most expensive, most time-consuming part of todo list. I prefer write_n_forget todo system or pencil-update only.

— bpost .. was an /unlikely winner/ but it has proven effective for longer-term tasks … Aha
System down once few months 🙁

— Q: in choosing the todo sytems, why not just follow your sys1? Sys1 would “self-adapt”?
A: No. Without conscious effort, you are likely to be stuck with bad solutions like …(no need to give examples)

— Q: What todo list do ordinary people use? I guess very few use tww. I guess smartphone (camera) is “quick-n-lazy”.

However, Photos saved in the phone tend to take up huge space for years. Upkeep can be time-consuming unless the user develops efficiency. Overall,  it’s a highly inefficient todo system.

==== another bpost: todo-dashboards #tabs

  • 1) inboxes — in MSOutlook and gmail are two disconnected dashboards, mostly for tasks given by other people
  • 2) browser tabs – each represents a task, but this breeds an over-reliance on blogging sites.
  • gmail draft
  • google calendar
  • (to be deleted) MSOutlook tasks — GTD author suggested MSOutlook tasks as the ultimate, but I find it useful only for a subset of my tasks.
  • — Now some all-time favorites that depend on no sophisticated software systems, which are always over-complicated and less reliable
  • 0.txt hosted in git blog was my primary dashboard for a few years..
    • 🙂 useful when we I have a lot of tww + shopping items + reminders
    • 🙂 printable
    • 🙂 high density with multiple items
    • 🙂 version history via git
    • Can use any decent text editor (not notepad or Winword)
  • paper notice board —
    • 🙂 highest visibility, good for a short span up to 2H.
    • 🙂 extremely simple and robust, similar to the space pen (pencil)
    • 🙂 Can be combined with other notice boards.

Conclusion — no perfect combination

[18]how I achieved%% Comfortable Economic Profile by44

Posted on by tiger40490

 

(I want to keep this blog in recrec or open blog, not tanbinvest. I want to be brief yet incisive.)

See 3 ffree scenarios: cashflow figures. What capabilities enabled me to achieved my current Comfortable Economic profile?

  • — top 3
  • by earning SGP citizenships
  • by developing my own investment strategies, via trial-n-error
  • by staying healthy
  • — the obvious
  • by high saving rate thanks to salary + low burn rate — efficiency inspired by SG gov
  • by consistent body-building with in-demand skills -> job security. I think rather few of my peers have this level of job security. Most of them work in one company for years. They may be lucky when they need a new job, but they don’t have my inner confidence and level of control on that “luck”. Look at Y.W.Chen. He only developed that confidence/control after he changed job a few times.

When I say “Comfortable” I don’t mean “above-peers”, and not complete financial freedom, but rather … easily affordable lifestyle without the modern-day pressure to work hard and make a living. In my life there are still too many pressures to cope with, but I don’t need to work so damn hard trying to earn enough to make ends meet.

A higher salary or promotion is “extremely desirable” but not needed. I’m satisfied with what I have now.

I can basically retire comfortably.

##EMC locations for book #todo

Posted on by tiger40490

— “too many” _disconnected_ locations .. Wife complaint… I guess 10 could be too many but 7 locations are fine, after we get used to them
— high-up vs bottom-pigeonhole vs mid-level…… All 3 heights can be pragmatic, safe and advantageous. Clearly mid-level offers optimal visibility and accessibility.

I would say bottom shelf is more stable than high-up, and easier for moving categories of books in bulk

High-up has plenty of unused EMC resources, good for permanent placement.
— glass door (or no door) vs wood cabinet door
Wood door on a cabinet is unwelcome iFF I need to access the books therein frequently, But Hey, nowadays I have very few books that I access frequently, so wood door is largely tolerable.
— growth factor … Now (2023) I have up to 10 categories of books, and I have smallish “rack space” for each. If we have an expanding category, then we need spare capacity for it
* parenting
*
==== choices:
— choice G9: top of wardrobe …I feel we have other content for that location, such as empty containers, spare bags
— choice G1: two display cabinets .. shallower than wardrobes 🙂 , and horizontally shorter (less sagg:) , therefore good for many small categories of books.
Open_space_above the glass bookcase is secure and can also hold a less hot but possibly large category like magazines. todo: cover in clear plastic sheet taped to the A/C trunking
— choice G2: bookcase (esp. lower pigeonholes) in my cockpit, but /placement/ is not finalized
— choice G5: big drawers … one of my least favorites, but if we have too many (like 5) unused big drawers then yes books can go in
— choice G7: big tray …… (foldable) I like the big tray of c++ books and big tray of quant books. I think they belong to a low height (Smaller tray safe for higher) location like storeroom, but should be better lit than in #1173.

This choice is extremely flexible, low cost, simple … almost /makeshift/. Very practical and useful in #1173 wardrobe pigeonholes, but not in #1169, except perhaps ikea room divider. Bookcases also offer big pigeonholes but #1169 bookcases tend to belong to kids
— choice G8: small amount can go onto bookcases in Room 1 and 2, but they belong to kids (wife said repeatedly) and they are sagging already.
— choice: wall-mounted shelf like in Blk 177 bathroom and #1173 doorway. I won’t install these in #1169

##gain` traction+vision {years@envy P1

Posted on by tiger40490

k_bedBug_wisdom  k_tectonic

See also ##GordianKnot Cutters

Need a better title. Old title: “##gain` traction+vision {years@envy”, showing

  1. Gaining (temporary) vision after years of shooting in the dark
  2. Gaining (temporary) traction after years of spinning the wheel

This blogpost grew to become /unwieldy/, so I split it to a sister blogpost on wellness+finance

  • [c = even a SINGLE effective strategy / tactic would put me above the clueless majority]
  • [m = I or someone can teach a class like the master class run by the Value-Investing or e-commerce gurus ]
  • [r = reflective writing proved instrumental]
  • [e = I envied for years, until I figured out some secrets, and now becoming the envy of others ]
  • [t = reached a decisive turning point]
  • [h = hidden barrier]

—- [c] eg: boy’s math coaching… My vision secret? put aside benchmarks and try to increase his intrinsic motivation by 1%. Possibly insignificant (I don’t think so). Definitely better than nothing.
—- eg: secure foothold in the U.S. the land of opportunities. Gaining traction year after year. I am reaching my turning points steadily. Last one was my priority date becoming current.
—- eg: find a women good enough, who likes me. Turning point was 2005.
—- [] eg: underfucked for years
My traction secrets? intimacy calendar. See https://btv-open.dreamhosters.com/47636/21-jan-counselling/
—- [ct] eg: ROTI family outing — The tcost of outing was prohibitive. ROTI was always underwhelming if 5H+
My traction secrets? jogging
—- [cmr] eg: bedbugs — some consider them as untreatable. My vision secret? See bedbug heuristics:where, how many,spreading speed,weekly check
—- [ch] eg: use paper as /dashboard/ — more effective than technologies
hidden barrier of effectiveness: access .. paper is far more accessible in writing or display
—- [chm] eg: mosquito .. screen is economical, durable. Additional traction secret: avoid tear at the edges.
hidden barrier of effectiveness: inconvenience.. The suction lamp takes 10% of the effort of other solutions.
—- 1169 main door too heavy and need 3 magnets… My vision secret? friction pad underneath the door is cheaper, far easier to install (no drilling) and more effective
—- [h] door closer detachable middle rod ..
hidden barrier and vision is the tilting angle… when too sloped, it would rub hard on the top surface of the swinging door, and cause a growing problem.
—– [] hair drooping over forehead .. I always had to visit a barber. My vision secret? This part grows faster than all other parts, so I could cut it short by myself.

===== as student
—- [et] improve English vocab and aim to have enough to express myself in writing and carry a conversation
—- [et] improve English listening and aim to follow BBC radio
In terms of listening, this goal is harder because the other person can’t slow down and repeat for me.
—- [et] earliest defining example: Chinese compo — My “traction” secrets to start gaining traction?

  • Use as many nice phrases as possible to describe details;
  • Develop sufficient vocabulary to describe vague or complex sentiments
  • free-flow writing

Is this a defining eg of “traction”? Yes.

===== career
—- [hmt] eg: java (and c++) IV stardom — Is this a defining eg of “traction”? Yes.
My traction secrets? I failed many interviews until I found out what valuable questions to focus on

C++ journey was more winding. My traction required more interviews and easier interviews.

HFT c++IV are still too hard.

hidden barrier: need to impress the interviewers in some tech domain
—- WallSt-pro status — achieved in 2010 after GS.
My traction secrets? not GS trec, not dnlg, but java IV skill !
—- [ce] tech career longevity — against churn. We all envy the doctors.
My vision secrets? I found a “way” to this goal, via WallSt contract market
—- [et] c++ IV, and c++/java combo — envied for years those who can pass C++ interviews. This battle is much harder and longer than the java battle. My traction secret? Here are some

  • bet on the topics. Go skin-deep [1] on a wide (wider than java?) range of paper-tiger topics, but go deeper on several core topics. See c++11,sockets,IPC in QnA IV #Ash.S
    • [1] earlier I overspent myself on too many secondary topics.
  • Use HFT c++ interviews as training only; count successes only at Type1 and Type3 c++ interviews. Focus on outscoring the competition at these easier contests.

 

##hidden barrier #AMB,BMI,

Posted on by tiger40490

k_Promethean_struggle

Barriers are sometimes /insurmountable/ until you identify/perceive them. Once you focus on a barrier, it may become a smaller barrier.

For the below examples, the barrier is internal and hard to identify. It requires some self-knowledge, self-discovery. The struggle, the endeavor is self-mastery, self-motivation.  (The two posts on traction/vision show _other_ hidden barriers. )

— hidden barrier: expRatio .. prevented me from achieving the SP500’s return for many years. Another “hidden barrier” is the unknown fact that no other stock market is nearly as strong as the U.S.

== learning skills
— hidden barrier: boy’s academic motivation .. all the “helps” are insufficient and often unrequested.
In 2021 boy actually requested tuition help on math.

In P1, boy’s English spelling for 10 words .. until he had the will, even 3 hours were insufficient
— hidden barrier: grandpa learning computers .. I guess the barrier is not so invisible.
— coding drill .. for many people in my cohort, spare time is not that scarce. There’s some partially hidden barrier such as lack of positive feedback or progress.
I wrote to Sophia Cui about the 996 work hours…
== wellness examples
— BMI .. See BMI 进步=harder]SG despite my low-starch, raw veg/fruit, smoothie diet, I still hit some hidden barrier
— flossing .. somehow, I am unable to floss 100 times in 6M, due to some hidden barrier
One hidden barrier is convenience.. see https://btv-open.dreamhosters.com/16627/brushingflossing-frequency-beats-duration/
— 5/wk workout .. most individuals in my cohort couldn’t achieve it due to some hidden barrier. Time, motivation are the visible obstacles. One hidden barrier is unrealistic target.
— yoga self practice .. hidden barriers could be

  • Not accepting easy stretches. Pushing myself too hard. No joy. Not sustainable.
  • I don’t notice any progress .. Promethean struggle

Bullets firing into an invisible barrier

[21]shift`fixations since q3SG #othRisk

Posted on by tiger40490

It takes too much time to keep this list. In each item, there are too many important details.. like pulling out a thread from a knitted sweater:( … Once I start pulling I can’t stop pulling.

  • [early 2016] renzi
  • [mid 2016] boy ownership, heavy workload, efficiency, kiasu parents,
  • personal finance, including bx and property investment
  • [Mar – Sep 2016] fitness including yoga
  • [Sep 2016] (after coming back from Beijing trip) marriage – risk of break-up
  • [m] UChicago
  • [m] c# body building —- ended in 2013. I tried several US jobs.
  • Saxo/Oanda —- subsided after my Saxo options expired in Nov 2015. Failed experiment
  • [!m] FSM —- more than 3H/week for most of 2013 – 2016
  • boy Eng reading —- Late 2014, before his P1, we enrolled in Mind Stretcher and KentRidgeTutors. In P1, we engaged home tutor mostly for English reading (and writing).
    • [m] renzi —- In P2, my focus shifted to renzi. I brought boy out on weekends to read on MRT or in library. Very poor ROTI.
    • ownership^bmark —- initiative, efficiency, study habits … was a focus since early 2016.
  • [m] Jill’s, BGC and Phnom Penh — minor focuses
  • b@a —- dominant focus after the chat with Ilya Oct 2014 – Mar 2015. Went to office on many weekends
  • post-b@a —- dominant focus Mar – May 2015
  • ramp-up at Macquarie —- major focus for Jun – Dec 2015. Weekends…
  • H1 —- dominant focus from Dec 2015 to Mar 2016. This includes all the analysis, discussions and decision-making.
  • yoga —- became a minor focus in Feb 2016. Took up lots of time and energy.
  • unstable marriage for a few weeks after waigong came.
  • Boy fitness —- signed up with flexifitness in Jul.
    • [m] my jogging —- I started jogging with them then with Ashish. My ROTI is excellent. This also includes yoga and swim.
  • [m=measurable target]

In hind sight, overspent on boy, investment, basically same tendency in HIS19 !