Desaru waves: father swept away

misstep .. 一念之差

How similar this case is to me and my son.

— based on https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/missing-singaporean-man-swept-waves-desaru-kota-tinggi-found-dead-drowned-malaysia-4014146

The 49-year-old was in the water off The Westin Desaru Coast Resort a day earlier when he was swept away by waves.

“The victim, who wore a black pair of shorts, was found by members of the public about 5km from where he was reported to have gone missing.”

Mr Tan and his 16-year-old son were hit by waves while frolicking at the water’s edge before being swept away. 

17 rescuers were deployed following the distress call, and Tan’s son was eventually rescued

 

##eg: cross`road@bike: #1 misstep

Impatience at “closing doors” or crowded escalators .. are less harmful.  Impatience at RED traffic light is a special case. It is the most dangerous case of impatience.

(Perhaps 5 seconds before reaching the junction), focus on breathing (deep breathing, hold it, and breath out. ) and muscle relaxation. Get off the bike or lean on something to help yourself relax.

Observe the body reactions [eye brow, breathing, faster steps]

self-talk.. engage the impatient self (sys1?). A wise man rushes not. Only a fool rushes.

Q: what if I miss a green light, and get stuck at this red for a minute? What does the 1 minute delay cost me?


classic misstep/mis-judgement

— too lucky… I have been TOO lucky over the numerous traffic accidents, and always escaped without injury.

I may benefit from a real injury, like my dad’s injury on a braking bus. The injury would teach me a lesson.

— This reckless behavior is more serious than most other threats (Over the last 30 years, I have consistently failed to recognize this elephant in the room)

  • Crippling injury while crossing street on bike is more serious than losing my job.
  • Becoming disabled due to crossing street is more serious than investment woes.
  • Losing my limbs (paralyzed from the neck down) is more serious than losing my marriage, custody,,
  • Losing any one limb is worse than conviction and imprisonment
  • Going through rehab after a road-crossing accident (assuming handicap) is worse than a PIP + humiliating bonus
  • Injury to a kid is worse than the kid taking drugs
  • A handicap due to road crossing on bike is worse than losing my memory capacity due to aging

This threat is bigger than just about every threat in my world, but failed to stay in the top 3, not even top 10 in my mind.

It was plausible to avoid U.S. simply because of illicit drug hazard. Similarly, I should consider giving up my bicycle simply because of road crossing.

==== changing my 30Y habit ..

Following dumb safety practice, we should make no judgement of traffic condition for potential crossing opportunity. Instead, start observing the hidden dangers[3], as advised by counsellor Lim. We don’t need to look left and right when our light is red. Instead we just wait, while observing the sky, plants and other interesting things around.

[3] A classic hidden danger and a pattern: At a controlled junction, even when I’m slow-moving while crossing a road, some drivers may be too focused on the traffic light to notice me. Many people are completely relaxed and inattentive when they see a green light.  Worse still, when I’m on crossing on bike, I’m faster, and it’s is even harder for drivers to notice me.

Unusual Sugg: if you see red light for pedestrians, but still want to cross the street, then better cross at a point away from the traffic light (which is red for pedestrians, green for drivers). The further you go from the traffic signal the safer. Drivers would subconsciously assume a child can dash to the road. Drivers are more alert, and would focus on the road rather than the green traffic light right in front. The green light tells driver to “relax” and ignore pedestrians.

Cognitive self-help to correct a deep-rooted (reasoning ) habit, which has moved from sys2 to sys1.  I guess this /battle/ is (to varying degrees) similar to the battles over gambling, punctuality, forgetfulness, flirting, recycling, disrespectful remarks,,,, where cognitive effort is in doubt. But right now I have no other means of self-help. Cognitive self-help is better than being helpless. I choose to believe in self-talk. “Change your perception/attitude through self-talk, and change your risky behavior.”

Counsellor Lim said people who self-talk are smarter, as proven scientifically. I guess these individuals are more self-aware, more observant, linguistically stronger (in whatever mix of languages they employ).

— reminders .. I assumed it was ineffective to remind my son about crossing road. How about the constant public reminder of drink-n-drive? I think it is not effective enough but better than no reminder.

We have cautionary reminders about wallet, phone, switch-off, locking door. They are effective for me.

sugg: reminder stickers in….

sugg: design passwords around road crossing

Sugg: ask wife and kids to give me specific reminders not generic ones

sugg: keep count how many times I waited at a pedestrian crossing red light even when there is no vehicle in sight.

Q: why I failed to learn from my real, serious mistakes in the same way as I learned with compliance, or with my exams?
A: I guess the realized painful consequence was still too light. Was I trying to play down the risk?

Perhaps a higher being has sent me a message repeatedly but I have ignored it.

Q: re the graphic, horrific photographs of human remains .. as shown on (Singapore) cigarette packaging and in 北京火车站 wall posters, are they morbid or necessary?
A: I think for someone who has been hit many times, these images may be the shocking, jolting, stomach-churning reminders he needs to stop his reckless actions.

==== analysis / pattern of sys1 risky behavior

  • red light for pedestrian.. When there’s pedestrian path, but no pedestrian traffic light, my sys1 feel less safe. It is actually safer because drivers know to stop.
  • At a blind corner, I (sys1) often proceed with over-confident misassumptions about what’s behind the corner.  The faster I ride, the less likely drivers can see me coming.
  • impatience and over-smart. See [3].
  • dumb pedestrians and dumb traffic light .. Cigna counselor pointed out the traffic light systems were designed based on evidence. They appear inefficient but they reduce accidents.
  • unnecessary judgement .. a habit of unnecessary judgement. Being a passenger is safer than driving because drivers need to make assessments and decisions.
  • the incidents were always involve my misstep, while the driver had a green light. At spots (eg: ChuliaSt) without traffic lights, most drivers become more /watchful/, though they still can hit a jaywalker.
  • sometimes I have limited visibility, and tend to assume “safe for me”. Other times I have visibility.

* at familiar and frequent hotspots, I often feel more bold/reckless, following a habit (sys1). I guess this category accounts for 90% of my reckless actions.
* At unfamiliar spots(many of the listed incidents), I also cross recklessly on bike, and sometimes on foot

— incidents: Cross street on bike, when cars doesn’t move after pedestrian light turns RED. I basically assumed it was still OK to cross !

  1. In Clementi (1994-98) I had one physical hit by a car
  2. Outside TPY stadium, I had the most dangerous near-death while crossing on bike, against a red light. My toddler boy was presumably on my bike. All of the visible vehicles were stopped, so I assumed no vehicle would be coming my way. In hindsight, I think those stopped vehicles might be waiting to turn right, or they could be slowly starting to move.
  3. In White Plains (2017-18), I (on bike) had many more street crossing attempts (dangerous!) when cars were starting and heading towards me.
  4. in Apr 2018, I was cycling from JC to Bayonne along Ocean Ave. There were many small streets crossing Ocean Ave, mostly quiet, so I quickly learned to ignore the red lights as I cycled down Ocean Ave. Then one of the junctions was not sooo quiet. I had a red light but I ignored it. From behind a blind corner a car raced towards the junction (as he had a green light). The driver managed to stop before hitting me !
  5. On Sunday 27 May 2018 I was cycling to north in NYC. My light turns green, so I went ahead to cross the street. But I also decided to cross to the west. Then a yellow taxi headed south. Lucky his speed was not too fast so he was able to stop a meter from me. In hind sight, subconsciously I felt crossing to the west was also under green light.

On foot:

  1. About 5-10 times till 2022, I often cross against Red on foot, only to turn back upon seeing vehicles coming my way.
  2. During CNY 2023, I was rushing from CapitaSpring to CapitaGreen to meet my friend Tianjue. Waiting to cross Church street. Traffic stopped due to red light, so I decided to walk across 5 lanes of stopped cars. The gaps between the lanes were too narrow for any car, so I dropped my guards. Then I was caught unprepared when a motorbike zoomed past right in front of me. I had to push on the passing bike to stop myself from falling onto it. The push was not hard enough to knock the driver down, but it was dangerous for both of us. I should have paid him $2000 compensation.

##misstep, 一念之差

k_divorce ,,,, k_X_compliance

See also

This blogpost is about non-trivial missteps in general, and its darkest subset i.e. 一念之差 . Historically, I decided to group this blogpost with related blogposts in pff, so as to have a single tag “t_misstep”… Not purist, I prioritized cross-linking.

  • — — serious missteps
  • #1 [1pr] road crossing ..
  • #2 [1] compliance .. misstep at MLP (other jobs are less valuable)
  • [1pr] try drugs … if a young person decides to try drugs
  • [Lr] U.S. Immigration offense … (Negligence is not mis-judgement)
  • — — unlikely missteps:
  • [1Lr] confess.. if you confess something on camera or in writing, it can haunt you for a lifetime
  • .. criminal record in the U.S. system is the main focus. China’s 档案 system is even “worse”. confessions during Cultural revolution
  • [Lr] if you cheat on your spouse even once, she/he has enough reason to demand divorce. Half the times this decision (to cheat) is made without thought, perhaps under influence from alcohol.
  • [1Lpr] if you beat your wife or kids just once you can be convicted of domestic violence. The damning evidence could be nothing more than a single video footage or informal, private chat, taken out of context. Note U.S. court is biased in favor the the vulnerable like kids and housewives.
  • [Lp] [[鹰冠山庄]] a young man A was tricked into beating another young man. This was presented as evidence in court, so A was denied custody to his young son.
  • — — relatively mild missteps:
  • [1r] pre-existing .. if you let a doctor record in the medical record your own words about cholesterol medication, it can stay there forever and become a pre-existing condition
  • [1L] drunk driving .. if you are caught drunk driving, you would face penalties and get a police record. Even a passenger having an open alcohol bottle could be a damning evidence, but the penalty might be different from drunk driving.
  • [1Lr] (personal xp): trespass
  • (personal xp): 2013 A/C tubing installation
  • [L=need awareness of various legal implications]
  • [p=physical harm, including disability]

— Contrasting a few (up to 4) wildly different missteps can generate sparks and insights into ….

  1. road crossing .. the prime example in a bigger category, which includes drink-driving, speed driving,,,#1 biggest mega-threat in my entire “world”
  2. compliance .. biggest threat to my MLP job

—  key feature: $cost .. a misstep can cost tens of thousands, even threaten your barebones ffree. See the big picture in NAV 一辈子花不完@@ 3 factors
— [r=(almost)permanent consequences]  long shadow ..
* compliance offense .. shortest “shadow”
* divorce where kids are not involved .. relatively short shadow
—  [1=一念之差] (very) brief window for the decision maker, often under pressure, so no space for due diligence. A lot of times, the action was taken in an emotional overreaction.

  • classic example is my “trespass” experience. Similarly, reckless road-crossing can (and did) also get me into accidents.
  • divorce .. A single misstep can sow the seed — abuse; cheating
  • In some Islamic laws, divorce is concluded by the husband repeating some phrase 3 times. You could regret later, but the damage could be permanent [like re-marriage or punishment by the family]
  • Counter-eg: U.S. Immigration offense … often employer can remind you, so it is rarely a personal negligence.
  • Counter-eg: 2007 Dateline NBC https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/To_Catch_a_Predator. These decision makers had plenty of time… so not 一念之差.
  • Counter-eg: bidding war when buying HDB. Even if you make a rash decision and pay $1000 OTP, you have 14 to 21 days to think it over.. so not 一念之差.

 

Christopher Reeve

 


k_Kahneman

See also https://btv-open.dreamhosters.com/45310/blogg-topic-prefer-well-published-stories/

Q: If you were Robin Williams or a family member, would you prefer your friend to BB) die a quick, painless death soon after the accident, or AA) live the 10Y longer life that Reeve lived?

For many outsiders, we would choose BB… A short but glorious life like the NUS professor Lee Loo Hay. As Kahneman pointed out, PeakEndRule and DurationNeglect.

For Reeve’s children who were born before the accident, and his wife, the choice is clear. Kids need the father.

If I am the parent of a victim like Reeve, I would prefer AA unless my son is stuck in a comma. I would cheer him up (just as Robin did) and encourage his fighting spirit. For a fighter, there’s nothing to loose, and there’s so much to gain. The pain and suffering will subside over time, as Buddha observed.

Clearly, Reeve himself preferred AA. He fought for years to live longer, after he came to terms with this chronic condition.

— U-index .. (defined in this bpost) His U-index was probably no worse than ordinary people. This U-index is hard to comprehend because we outsiders always compare.. compare such a “limited” life with our normal lives. However, Reeve probably doesn’t live in that comparison. The comparison with his own past was probably not a constant backdrop. He had jobs to do, including parenting, film production, writing.

If you stay busy and focused on goals, then you probably end up comparing less. I assume those comparisons have a net negative impact on xpSelf’s wellbeing, and rmSelf’s wellbeing.

— side question: Is the disaster a white swan or a misstep? Not exclusively, but a combination.

My prediction — the more we perceive it as our own misstep, the less we attribute it to back luck or other people’s mistakes, the earlier we would come to terms with it, and take responsibility to rebuild our life.