Tag: t_le2

quality content at least good enough to share with others

exam success but professionally mediocre #XR#CNA late bloomer

Posted on by tiger40490

k_miswanting_blindFOMO

XR,

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/psle-results-role-models-late-bloomers-beat-the-odds-568471  is a Channel News Asia commentary I read when receiving my son’s Primary School Leaving Exam results. Some of the words resonated with me.

“What’s wrong with being average?”

“The stories we tell ourselves matter. For once, I would like to see attention given to folks, who scored, for instance, 270 (something like top 0.2%), for PSLE, sharing that they are now working at an unimpressive job, but that their professional and social status doesn’t bother them”

Most of the top students I know in my career are not _that_ successful in terms of leadership, tangible (non-financial) achievements, or compared to your income. I think most of these top students turned out mediocre (普通人). I like to talk about these stories every time I discuss top schools and top students.

Many parents tell the late bloomer stories, but those stories drive home the wrong message (see the CNA article). I want to be different — I like to talk about the exam-success-but-mediocre-professional stories. These are the most powerful and valuable stories, like the kid at the end of [[Emperor’s new clothes]]. They reveal a startling truth about exam success.

(intellectual) lifelong learning .. Instead of exam success, you once pointed out a truer measure of learning capacity. I notice the same point in various articles — lifelong learning habit is a more accurate predictor of a person’s learning capacity. Those who keep learning throughout their lifetime .. tend to end up with better learning outcomes.

Note lifelong learning is related to, but not correlated with, late-bloomer. Late bloomers have tenacity, resilience, life-long self-improvement, but they may not be lifelong “learners” in terms of bookish knowledge.

My father and I are examples of lifelong learners — we both keep reading/writing, and we implicitly benchmark ourselves against fellow learners.

On a side note, I don’t even think top exam scores equate to academic achievement. High school and lower-grade exams are all about knowledge, repetitive practice, not research, not innovative, not ground-breaking, not even close to the frontier of human knowledge. My father wrote 20+ academic books, some ground-breaking. High-school top exam takers can’t write a single research paper … until they shift focus off the exams.

[10] best manager for me #S.liu, Tanko

Posted on by tiger40490

Nothing new to share — Just want to say Thank You again for giving me a lot of advice on working with managers.

Before GS, I had always avoided large companies, because in 2002 I had deeply negative experiences with large company politics. Then I decided to stick to finance. Now I can’t avoid large company politics any more.

I still feel the more Chinese-like, the worse I will suffer. I had Indian, Chinese, Singaporean and White managers. The best “match” are those relaxed, trusting, hands-off managers. Obviously, some of my Chinese managers are nice (forgiving and informal …) too. As a crude analogy, not all Chocolates are more bitter than all non-chocolate candies.

Inevitably, I will head back to Singapore and jump into the muddier water there, leaving behind the less-muddy water on Wall Street. I feel it’s critically important to find a “matching” manager, but I doubt I can tell over those telephonic interviews. I might be lucky to get a matching manager, but it’s more likely I will suffer quite a bit.

— in 2021, I told Tanko .. the perfect job/mgr is one who accepts me as a greying, low-energy, unambitious techie, who does get things done at a reasonable quality but slower pace. Tanko said some older managers are tolerant. Many team members are probably similar in productivity. Those fast workers are not necessarily more productive considering quality (rework, support issues…)

Tanko said he is older/slower than colleagues but more attentive to details. Sounds similar to me.

中年男士40-50压力最高@@ #w1r1

Posted on by tiger40490

k_X_FOMO_v_livelihood

压力最高是 2008-2009 高盛阶段。最近几年 （2017 年以来）逐步降低。

[w=related to widespread wrong priorities, such as mindless luxury spend driven by blind FOMO, or mindless fixation on brank]

  1. 健康？ 有的中年男士出现状况， 我只是胆固醇稍高
    1. [w] 没时间运动和睡眠？ 我有时间
    2. [w] 饮食失控？
    3. 失眠？我没有
  2. [R] 上有老下有小需要照顾? (Singaporeans talk about the sandwich generation.) 只有大宝这小子叫我操心. Much better after PSLE.
  3. marriage? no major threats or fault lines
  4. [Rw] 房奴？ 只贷款了两年。（其实根本不用贷款。公积金利息比贷款高, 不想动用公积金所以才贷款。）
  5. [w] 入不敷出？ 不工作我一家都够花
  6. 工作职责，任务，压力？ 有的中年男士40多爬到个人事业巅峰，可能责任重大，指挥千军万马。 我没这压力。
  7. FOLB, as hinted in the RoyalSociety talk [[Life Starts at 40]]
  8. 移民？ 的确是许多中年男士头上一座大山。 移民牵扯到购房、医保 、语言障碍、适应气候、歧视、重建人脉、就学、就业、 甚至被迫转行。 有的蹲移民监不敢回国（怕再进不来）连家人送葬都赶不上。
  9. [R] 投资重挫，一蹶不振？Strategic misstep? 我也亏过， 但没损失个人净资产的 1% 所以没啥压力。
  10. [w] 架空？ 有的中年男士薪水或职位太高，公司可以提拔30多岁年轻人“取而代之”。 就算没有迹象，也令当事人忧心忡忡，战战兢兢，捕风捉影地疑神疑鬼。 我不担这心。

— [R] See also may (mail) long chat with R.Teo

— I think the “中年男士压力最高” notion is not supported by enough data .. See [[lifespan dev]]. However, there is enough anecdotal evidence to convince most observers that indeed many 40-59 men suffer multiple stressors.

Similar to the wealth gap (income gap, education gap…), this is a kind of “mental health gap”.

marriage counsel`:deep conversations, shared activity

Posted on by tiger40490

Shared activity … I can’t think of any (besides our weekly family outings). I try to join her on her solo trips to the nearby supermarket. At best it is a 20-minute activity. Her hobbies include watching Korean dramas, online shopping, and visiting department stores,… but I don’t share those hobbies.

You mentioned regular deep conversation and quality time. Indeed our bonding has improved because we now have many quiet mornings on weekdays when kids are in school and I work the afternoon shift. Quiet mornings are precious and probably unsustainable because my wife is planning to get a regular job. Outside these quiet mornings, I don’t recall any quality time. Our conversations are never really deep, but when we were alone together long enough (during quiet mornings), we have the opportunity to talk about non-trivial topics at length. Other people can’t imagine how hard it is for my wife to sustain a focused conversation beyond 10 minutes. On any topic, she would quickly come to a conclusion and have no patience to hear my words.

Suppose the topic is our new home. She could sustain only a 15-min chat on the “Renovation” topic (close to her heart). However, if there are several sub-topics like 1) shower-screen 2)flooring 3)timeline 4)risk management 5)budget… then she can sustain a 5-minute chat on each sub-topic. In fact, “risk” and “budget” are vague topics for her. She has problems going in-depth on these abstract topics. She can sustain longer conversations on the “wall tile” topic.

  • Another example of a concrete topic is a vacation to, say, Bali.
  • Another example of a vague, broad topic is how to help kids with academics (in her mind, that means nothing but grades).
  • Another example of a vague, broad topic is how to improve communications between the 2 of us.

These examples (except the “communications” topic) are some of the rather few topics of interest to her. In contrast, 90% of my favorite conversation topics (shared with my friends) are too boring to her, too abstract, too technical, too big. Though she has a diploma, her intellectual curiosity is like a high school girl. It is reflected in her conversation topics. I didn’t mention that she is interested in K-pop, shopping, make-up, and fashion for kids, but I have zero interest therein.

I said in our first chat that “meaningful conversations” is a visible weakness in this marriage. I have been disappointed too many times so I have given up on it. However, the depth of conversations (or lack thereof) in my marriage is not a serious problem.

A chatting partner is a different relationship altogether. I often have chatting partners at work or among ex-colleagues/ex-classmates. I feel intimate enough to share lots of personal thoughts, but we don’t depend on each other for livelihood.

In contrast, there are important relationships that are not built on in-depth conversations. For example, a relationship between 2 joint owners of a business, or relationship between two siblings, or relationship between a boss and her only worker (in a team of two) can all be functional, supportive, and effective despite a lack of in-depth conversations.

I agree with you that a majority of successful, fulfilling marriages feature the chatting-partner relationship, but believe it’s not a make-or-break feature.

##SG citizenship: privileges over PR #K.Hu

Posted on by tiger40490

I have some minor reminders on the benefits of SG citizenship over SPR

  • no worry about PR renewal. Re-entry permit can be denied for vaccination and many other reasons.
  • citizen’s children are automatically citizens. It’s a privilege
  • medical benefits — hospitalization, subsidies, long-term nursing care
  • CPF-life — PR is eligible but not sure about any difference
  • school admission
  • school fees subsidy … up to college
  • HDB flat entitlement
  • social safety net — this is a broad theme of the 2020 new parliament and the next government. I think this safety net is mostly tailor-made for citizens who fall on hard times.
  • .. career transition support
  • baby bonus + tax rebate
  • occasional handouts including progress bonus, GST vouchers

prudent estimates #HF.Sun

Posted on by tiger40490

Hi (name removed for privacy),

I think you are more precise in your estimate than other people, so let me improve my precision of the estimates I shared with you. I was formally trained as an engineer and mathematician, so I appreciate your precision.

— You mentioned a friend aspired to generate enough dividend income to replace salary. I estimated 4% dividend yield for her (or him). That’s too conservative.

I like U.S. stocks. Some reputable U.S. stocks pay higher dividends than 4%. A less pessimistic estimate is 5%. To support SGD 60k/Y family burn rate, SGD 1.2M needs to go into stocks. How many of us can afford to invest SGD 1.2M into stocks , stop working and live on the dividend income indefinitely?  I still feel this plan is impractical.

In many stories, a dividend stock can grow in NAV. Your friend may buy at $100 and receive 4% yield, while the stock grows to $150, paying out $6 a year, i.e. 6% yield computed from initial investment. However, based on my observation, I believe such success stories are rare even in the U.S.

High growth and dividend yield seldom co-exist. Your friend must be lucky (or skilled) to hit such a hero stock.

U.S. dividends are taxable incomes, but I’m unfamiliar. I did receive tax return documents from my U.S. broker, showing the dividend incomes. Assuming 20% marginal tax rate, then the 5% dividend yield becomes effectively 4%.

— We discussed cash payout “yield” and You asked about mine in my portfolio. I bought (or in the process of receiving) rental properties, private equities (i.e. high yield debts), stocks, unit trusts … paying above 4%. ( I will exclude those investments paying out below 1%. ) So a more precise average payout is 6-7%. A more conservative estimate is 5-6%.

My “weighted average” calculation is dominated by realized rental income. Realized rental income is much lower than gross rental income, due to vacancy, commission, taxes, FX conversion, condo fees etc.

I think Singapore private residential properties are unlikely to generate 4% realized rental yield. However, Singapore property NAV often grows, so realized rental yield could grow beyond 4%. Not familiar. I don’t think the rental amount grows as fast as NAV.

I used 4% as a benchmark partly because CPF-SA/MA/RA pays 4%, also because the U.S. mainstream view on dividend uses 4% as a criteria for high-dividend.

— I estimated my developer career to end in my 70’s. It might end in my late 60’s, depending on demand and my health.
Some WallSt developer colleague (Shanghai guy in his 50’s or 60’s)  told me “If you enjoy coding, then you can work remotely, so colleagues don’t care about your age.” This theory will extend my developer career by a few years, but I don’t look forward to telecommuting.

— My target life span is 95 years. I will not give a more prudent estimate. (Prudent means planning for longer lifespan like 99.) Instead of “more prudent”, here is a more substantiated estimate:

https://www.singstat.gov.sg/find-data/search-by-theme/population/death-and-life-expectancy/visualising-data/lifeexpectancy shows that for a male Singaporean of my age, there’s a 11% projected likelihood to live till 95. If I am among the 11% most long-living males in my age group, then I would hit my target.

Q: how many percent of Singapore guys in my age group can work till their 70’s in a white-collar knowlege intensive job?
A: I think it’s below 11%, perhaps mostly in legal, architecture, healthcare(钟南山, same age as my dad), academic/education (like my father and many of his classmates)…

Therefore, my dev-till-70 career longevity goal is harder than my live-till-95 longevity goal. My father said both targets are realistic, if I work towards them. I believe my father and I believe in myself.

https://www.cpf.gov.sg/Members/Schemes/schemes/retirement/cpf-life sayd 1/3 of Singaporeans would live beyond 90. I think this 33% is a conditional probability given that “you are a Singaporean aged 65 now, regardless of health or age”

dhost blackout #live chat hours

Posted on by tiger40490

live chat: 7 pm – midnight – 1.30 pm SGT

Hi,I read and update my 3 personal blogs several times a day. I rely on them. When they went down on 26 Apr, I scrambled to find alternatives to cope. I won’t describe my desperate attempts to find alternatives.

I expect the same reliability in my blog infrastructure as in my home broadband, or phone service. So the 26 Apr experience was more than an outage… it was a blackout. Based on personal recollection, my broadband ISP and my phone company had blackouts once a couple of year. Now I have to accept blackouts once a year from Dreamhost.

If I hit 5 hours of blackout a year, then uptime is 99.94%, right? That’s quite bad in my opinion.

Q1: what happened on 26 Apr?

Q2: what did you do (if any) in the prior hours or days, that lead to the blackout?

Q2b: has this kind of thing happened before?

Q4: what did you do to restore/recover?

Q6: what time did support team read my issue ticket? I assume Dreamhost has 24/7 support for this kind of blackout, right?

Q8: how many other users affected?

Q9: Could you share a brief process improvement plan to 1) address the underlying issue 2) speed up recovery and minimize the next down time?

In my engineering training we read about the “five whys” technique to uncover the root cause. I really wish to see the root cause uncovered, because my experience was … painful.

[19]大宝数学应用题作业，我怎么帮他 #wordy problem

Posted on by tiger40490

【2019/8月】 和奶奶讨论，认为关键问题是不求甚解， 囫囵吞枣， 照猫画虎，完成任务。其实一知半解，却自以为掌握了要领，一考就没了信心，考试应用题经常瞎猜，碰运气 。考完了老师讲解过还是 一知半解，下次再考还是 瞎猜。

【20120/1月】大约一半的应用题， 还有大多数无文字地题目（包括图表、几何），大宝可以看懂。 这些应用题算基本应用题。 另外一半应用题是高级应用题，他最多一知半解，考试经常瞎猜，碰运气 。考完了老师讲解过还是 一知半解，下次再考还是 瞎猜。

【2019/8月】 我的提议是放慢步伐， 稳扎稳打， 一步一个脚印，逐步重建自信。
【20120/1月】稳扎稳打，不容易。重建自信 也不容易。 但这个方向也没错。
【2019/8月】 上课得专心，要跟着老师， 但是作业和考试题目，如果太难，就不强求孩子得分。我们大宝底子弱，又没兴趣又没信心，要考高分是  强人所难。所谓不及格“那就完了”， 说得过分。
【2019/8月】 老师给的应用题太多太难， 造成
  • 厌学
  • 削弱自信
  • 没时间玩，休息也不够。玩和休息比做题更重要
  • 四年级以前的数学成就感，基本消失了
  • 最终大宝也没掌握要领，考试就瞎猜，碰运气
【2019/8月】 孩子被数学应用题压得喘不过气。 5 年级的数学， 本应该是个春游背的“小背包”。而现在这个大石头， 勉强背着。 我儿子不是大力士，有点辛苦。
【2019/8月】 如前所述， 我会约见老师，提议大宝跳过一些高级的应用题，因为不适合他。而上课走神，却要严厉批评。
【2019/8月】 如果数学应用题作业不会，而我在家，大宝可以问爸爸。但我有 4 条要求：
  1. 每晚我只帮他学一题（多了吸收不了）大宝自己选一道题问爸爸。
  2. 我看懂题，先不解释，而是我自己出类似的简化的题目，确保孩子听懂了，能用自己的话解释透彻（比较难，所以要求不要太高）。
    • 我可能再出一道类似题，确保孩子掌握了要领。（考试题总是类似作业的，我学了十多年数学，早看透了。）
  3. 之后他自己尝试作业题。我尽量不帮他。孩子应该独立完成作业，不应该依赖家长。
  4. 这一题要 30 – 60 分钟。需要孩子专心致志。最好是 9 点以前，或饭前开始讨论。如果晚上10点才来问我，那就太晚了，我会建议大宝放弃这道题。
【2019/8月】 达不到我的要求就要他自己来。做不出就算了。希望老师不训他。应用题分数，目前我看是拿不到一半，全靠瞎猜，碰运气。我帮还是不帮，考试都会丢分一半。
  • 他达不到我的要求，自己照猫画虎做作业，考试也是丢分一半。
  • 如果晚上10点才来问我， 那就太晚了. 我决定不帮他，考试也是丢分一半。
  • 他太累了没精力专心跟我钻研， 我决定不帮他，考试也是丢分一半。
  • 就算我帮他做完作业（爷俩都花时间），他学个一知半解，考试也是丢分一半。

【2019/8月】 应用题方面， 我的目标是

  1. 分数 — 可能我帮他也无效，但我相信题海战术也无效。我学了十几年数学，对自己的判段有把握 。
  2. 掌握要领，掌握规律，重建自信。就算拿不到分，也是收获。要领真的掌握了（一把钥匙可以开 5 道门），马虎是正常的，没啥可怕。
【2019/8月】 大宝的数学成绩，可能停留在班里底层。家长需要定力。急也没用。最好是降低要求。泰然处之 — 是东方的智慧，中国人的智慧，爷爷的智慧。

IC designer wage: unexpected explanations #le2Jiong

Posted on by tiger40490

See also my email to CSY on medical researcher salary

== Thanks Zhang Jiong for sharing your insight. For many years IC design was my dream job.

https://www.glassdoor.sg/Salaries/singapore-ic-design-engineer-salary-SRCH_IL.0,9_IM1123_KO10,28.htm shows SGD 48k annual base salary as the average

  • across Singapore,
  • regardless of seniority or how much experience,
  • “very high confidence” estimate

This figure is surprisingly low. I guess many data points in this sample are recent immigrants from India or China or South-East Asia. These individuals are often satisfied with lower salaries.

https://www.glassdoor.sg/Monthly-Pay/Broadcom-IC-Design-Engineer-US-Monthly-Pay-EJI_IE6926.0,8_KO9,27_IL.28,30_IN1.htm?experienceLevel=SEVEN_TO_NINE shows USD $117k annual base salary for

  • Broadcom U.S. IC designers with 7-9 years experience
  • high confidence estimate

I think this figure is on the lower half of your estimate of 100k – 150k, because your “sample” might be more successful, more competent engineers. Possible?

I completed a Master’s degree program in financial mathematics, with a lot of training on statistics. So I know a thing or two about sampling bias 🙂

A summary of the factors affecting IC designer salary:

  • supply — pool of qualified, experienced IC designers is growing so the skill is not so rare.
  • demand — many U.S. employers are driven to downsize due to China competition
  • demand — the IC design industry has reached maturity and the downward curve (sunset industry?), because product differentiation can be achieved using industry-standard modules, without custom designs such as ASIC.
  • demand — demand is fundamentally affected by company profit. Overall profit across IC design companies is possibly declining because Chinese competitors can undercut everyone else due to cheaper labor and export subsidies.

[20]y I have a warm feeling for NYC

Posted on by tiger40490

(A letter I didn’t send out)

After hearing your first impression of NYC, I decided to take this opportunity to reflect why I have a warm feeling for the big apple.

Many Americans tell me NYC is full of energy. There are many young people, and many events. They make me feel lively, not lonely. I certainly wish to see more Chinese faces. Luckily, some of those young people (and older guys) attracted to New York City are actually Chinese. The three Chinatowns in NYC (Manhattan Chinatown, Flushing and eighth avenue) make me feel less isolated than in other U.S. cities. Jersey City also has a large Chinese population, much higher than an average U.S. city.

NYC is more inclusive, more diverse, i.e. less white.

NYC offers more diverse job choices and education choices. Makes me feel less boxed in less restricted and more free.

I don’t like car ownership and NYC is less car-dependent mostly due to the subway which runs 24-hours. NYC also has more buses than most US cities.

Incomes are slightly higher in NYC than other U.S. cities. I feel lucky for that. Even though prices are also higher, I don’t usually buy anything in Manhattan. As a result, I get to save more in NYC than other cities.

My family income is not high. Many “nicer” locations of U.S. are higher income. I actually feel poor living in those locations when my neighbors all earn higher. NYC has many low-income residents, and I feel not so left-out and left-behind.