neuro-diversity

I find this term close-to-heart but abstract/academic (non-mainstream). I need  a more specific, more concrete explanation.

The word neurodiversity … is often used in the context of autism spectrum disorder (ASD), as well as other neurological or developmental conditions and learning disabilities.

Embrace neurological differences.

commonLaw^civilLaw systems

Judges have more flexibility and power in commonLaw systems. U.S. judges can pass unusual judgement (trespass case).

In fact, commonLaw judges have power to make laws. These “precedents” are often as important as written statues … a feature of the commonLaw system.

Lawyers play a more central role in commonLaw (than Civil) systems. U.S. and HK movies often feature dramatic court room events.

CivilLaw systems originated in continental Europe; CommonLaw systems originated in Britain. As a consequence,
HK continues to follow a CommonLaw(普通法) system but China is a largely CivilLaw jurisdiction. Macau follows a CivilLaw (大陆法) system (Portugal).

Consistency and predictability — Some say CivilLaw has this advantage, and other say CommonLaw has this advantage.

 

6-char PNR

A.k.a Record_Locator. Unlike eTicket, PNR is not numerical but is often mis-named as a xxx_number.

On the same booking record, two passengers have two unique eTicket numbers, but share a single PNR.

— generated by each airline (or a GDS)

If your flights involve different airlines, there are sometimes separate PNRs for each carrier.

Two airlines can generate the same PNR of 123ABC with no risk of confusion, but this is statistically rare.

PNR is generated by the airline’s computer system, not by the travel agent, but in Feb 2025, JetAbout generated a reservation_code before airline generated a PNR.

In each carrier’s systerm, PNRs should not be recycled within 24 months.

 

white^black swan(def) ]%%blogg #predictability

 


Repeatedly, I have found that Taleb’s criteria for black swan are way too complicated, abstract, with too many parts, and simply too long, for most lay public users of this metaphor. Therefore, users everywhere have rebelled (against Taleb), abandoned his criteria, and adopted simpler criteria. Therefore, imprecision and inconsistency (in criteria) is widespread.

The phrases “black swan” and “white/grey swan” have, to varying degrees, widespread usage in my blogs and in public domain, but horribly imprecise/vague. Not to deviate too much from original criteria, but also not to get bogged down by it, I will briefly contrast these 2 phrases as used in my blogs. Because white swans are less rare, there must be more examples of them, perhaps more in my blogs.

  • —— Black swan events are  A) rare and C) massive[1], with lasting impact on communities, B) NOT easily predictable/foreseeable, even though official definition says “absolutely unpredictable/unforeseeable”
  • eg: WSC harbor shrinks, but becoming less competitive thanks to web2.0 attracting young tech talents away
  • eg: finIT domain losing pole position to web2.0 and other tech employers
  • eg: epa job : WLB[workload, timelines, commute,,], appr [expectations, comp as an indicator]. I might settle down as a long-timer.
  • eg: Blk 177 massive appreciation
  • eg: SG tech teams adopting telecommuting, remote hiring, just like U.S.
  • eg: MLP long-timers retrenched without obvious underperformance
  • eg: difficulty for foreigner SWE to get Sg EP
  • eg: rising salary at this age
  • —— White (and grey) swan events are A) less rare than black swans B) easily foreseeable even without hindsight, but usually came as a surprise due to poor planning. I will add another criteria C) less massive
  • eg: quick ascent of NUS and esp. NTU
  • eg: China salary and rEstate levels rising too fast towards (or exceed) SG level, but work condition deteriorating
  • eg: my marriage crisis
  • eg: rate of marriage failure around me
  • eg: 2022 peak in our intimacy .. rewarding, fulfilling, and then growing dependency on pills
  • eg: credit events in my HY/PE, and Megaworld unscrupulous practices
  • eg: covid19 as an earthquake
  • eg: my family’s net asset [BVxD] growing fast by 300k/Y
  • eg: hardworking colleagues let go for no apparent reason

By definition, there are more white swans than black swans in my life, but this phrase is too weak and unimaginative. I used this phrase only when comparing black swan event.

Unexpected success ..

— [1] massive impact .. I often say “little white swans” for less massive swan events. “Little black swan” is also plausible.

By default, and in common usage, black swans all have massive, lasting impacts on many people.

1-3 rice harvests/Y: Japan, Thai, Chn

I often tell my kids about rice harvests, so here’s some evidence

There are two main kinds of rice: indica, with longer grains, and japonica, with shorter grains. Some species, such as brown rice, come in both long- and short-grain varieties. The long-grain crop is lower in starch and higher in dry matter than its short-grain relative. Growing long-grain rice has the highest economic return of all rice cultivars.

The most widely consumed rice varieties are as follows:

  • long-grain: Jasmine, Wild, Red, and Black Rice;
  • medium-to-short-grain: Arborio, Koshihikari, Valencia, Carnaroli, Calasparra, Baldo, and Bomba.

Rice can be farmed year-round and harvested several times a year in tropical places with consistent warmth and plenty of precipitation. In contrast, in areas with four distinct seasons, the rice growing period often coincides with the wet (monsoon) season, providing sufficient rainfall and temperatures favorable for crop cultivation.

— Japan 1-2/Y

https://www.japan-guide.com/blog/home-delivery/200617.html#:~:text=The%20process%20of%20growing%20to,manage%20two%20harvests%20per%20year.

— Thai 3/Y

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rice_production_in_Thailand#:~:text=Thailand%20can%20harvest%20three%20rice,crops%20or%20forgoing%20one%20crop.

— China 1-2/Y

With ordinary farming practices, this process would take 120 to 150 days in major rice-growing areas in the country’s south or northeast (similar to Korea and Japan rice cultivation).

In contrast, 华北平原 .. probably wheat.

https://mychinesehomekitchen.com/2022/09/09/rice-farming-in-china/

safety comparison: modes@transport

Three main yardsticks: HH) fatalities per million passenger hours MM) fatalities per million passenger mile TT) fatalities per thousand trips.

I think MM records are more accurate, and data volume is much bigger. MM is more discussed, more reported in mass media, but I care more about HH.

https://turbli.com/blog/the-safest-transport-modes-ranked-by-statistics-from-10-years-of-data/

  • uses both HH and MM
  • explains “per passenger hour” is very different from “per vehicle hour”, and a much better yardstick

specifiCity ^ sensitivity

Scenario: you have two diagnostic “blackboxes”. One higher sensitivity like 99% but low specificity like 75%; the other higher specificity like 95% but low sensitivity like 70%

To get an intuive feel of the difference, we need to imagine an extreme scenario of high-low. If you have a diagnostic that’s superior in both sensitivity and specificity, then clearly superior… not useful for this discussion.

Both specfiCity and sensitivity are all about error rates:

  • high specifiCity means Low false_positive rate. Therefore, positive results are reliable.
  • high sensitivity means Low false_negative rate. Therefore, negative results are reliable.

Sensitivity and Specificity Explained for Medical Professionals

— 99% sensitivity means out of every 100 true positives, one would be missed out i.e. false negative (99 would show positive) in this diagnostic. A highly sensitive perhaps over-sensitive test (eg: CT, Hba1c)

  • 🙂 is good for rule-out, as it is unlikely to miss a true positive case.
  • 🙁 it can misfire, give false_positive like spurious wake-up.
  • .. if specificity = 75%, then 25% of the true negatives will show false positive.

— specificity .. is all about false_positives or misfire

A positive result of high specificity is “a highly specific indicator”.

95% specificity means out of 100 true negatives, 5 would show false_positive in this diagnostic. Some definitions of specificity focus on the 95% .. often convolunted and non-intuitive.

A highly specific diagnostic

  • 🙂 has low false_positive rate, therefore good for rule-in
  • 🙂 is an accurate indicator of a specific condition. A positive is unlikely to be some look-alike indistinguishable conditions.
  • 🙁 but can miss some true positives… 70% sensitivity means 30% of true positives missed.

考研 #benchmark #hearsay observations

考研对于学生在毕业后进入国企、事业单位和考公务员的帮助是比较大的,而从国外留学回来的学生一般进入大型私企和外资企业的几率比较大。

— 3 types in China system — 学术型硕士,专业型硕士,非全日制研究生

从培养方向来看,学硕的培养方向侧重理论,注重培养教学、科研人才,授予学位的类型主要是学术型学位;专硕的培养方向侧重实践,注重培养市场紧缺的应用型人才;非全日制研究生则为在职人员准备,注重提高在职人员的专业水平。

— selection criteria

中国研究生院校招生主要以考试为主,通过全国统一的研究生入学考试,对学生进行考试成绩考评,成绩达标[1] 的学生进入面试环节(复试),以面试结果确定最终录取结果。

统考的科目有数学、外语、政治。 专业课主要由各招生单位自行命题(加入全国统考的学校全国统一命题)

[1] This is a strict pass/fail criteria. 分数线  .. 主要是考研国家线国家确定的初试成绩基本要求,包括应试科目总分要求和单科分数要求。Exception: 自主划线是经教育部批准的部分招生院校可自主确定 “考生进入复试的初试成绩基本要求”及其他学术要求。只有34所高校有权自主划线。

1000=KB≠KiB=1024 #MiB,GiB #mnemonic

Overriding priority is consistency and confusion (reduction). For exactly one billion we should use gigabyte and gigabit (as in telecom).

based on https://physics.nist.gov/cuu/Units/binary.html.

1000 2^10 1 mil 2^20 2^30
symbol #use byte for eg KB KiB MB MiB GiB
pronounce for byte kilobyte kibibyte megabyte mebibyte  gibibyte
consistent with tradition kilometer, kilogram, kilowatt no tradition megawatt, megaton   no tradition
pronounce for bit kilobit kibibit megabit mebibit  gibibit

— mnemonic .. the extra i in KiB means “extra bit” in addition to the 1000