[16]bedbug heuristics:where, how many, spreading speed

k_bedBug_wisdom

See also staggering marginal ROI

Some people think a single sighting implies they must treat everything in the entire building, and stay in hotel for a few days. Even after treatment , they fear the bedbugs could come back from neighbors. So every family in the neighborhood has to move out to hotels 3 times a year (carrying bedbugs)? Well, germs (and covid viruses) are around us everywhere except clean rooms, so we humans have to live with them.

I read that “Since they prefer to nest within about 15 feet (5m) of their host, you’ll probably find them hiding in tight spaces near your bed.

Q: if you find up to 3 bedbug on your bed and nowhere else, do you need to treat entire house? It’s a touch chocie of cost vs risk.

  • If you opt for higher (not 100% permanent) protection, then move to hotel, treat entire house, move back and clean everything. Tcost would be many hours, far heavier than the $cost. Unfortunately, I won’t believe any guarantee by anyone that the bedbugs will not come back within a month. Note bedbugs can come from neighbor or carried by a host including visitors. So this is a super-high-cost, lower-risk, 99% reliable option.
  • If you opt for pragmatic living, then you can choose to treat (or replace) the mattress and observe. If bedbugs /resurface/ in a month, then they probably have a nest outside the mattress (unless the professional treatment was incomplete.. unlikely) so you may need to treat or replace the bed. If bedbugs only come back afer a year, then you may consider using cheaper mattress from now on, so you can replace them easily. This is a low-cost, higher-risk option.

— https://www.epa.gov/bedbugs/how-find-bed-bugs hints that bed bugs mostly hide on the bed, and in other parts of home only if heavily infested.

— https://www.youtube.com/watch?gl=SG&hl=en-GB&v=EVk3xFClDQA video says Infestation takes months. In the beginning, they only stay on your bed.

Weekly check.

http://bedbugscrusher.com/how-to-search-for-bed-bugs/
But the good news is there are very common areas that will usually be heavily infested prior to them spreading to these tiny little hiding spots that may be more difficult to uncover. So if you start with these areas and find the problem has just begun and the infestation has not become severe yet, it is possible to get rid of the problem on your own without the need for expensive professional help. It is still a LOT of work, but many people in recent years have been able to completely rid their homes of bed bugs all by themselves.

If you checked your entire bed and haven’t seen one little 1/4th inch size bug running away from you when he’s been exposed, then you probably don’t have any bed bugs in your home. They would not build a nest 10 feet away from their food if there is still tons of real estate available within a foot or two of their food.

Now if you have confirmed bed bugs, even if it’s just a handful, you need to treat your entire house.

termite prevention

  • Fix any leaking pipes and taps and keep structures dry. Termites depend on moisture to survive.
  • Seal cracks around utility and water pipes to keep them from crawling through to search for food.
  • Termites’ sources of food include unused timber, stumps or debris from your premises. Remove all of them.

— another article

Inside your home

  1. If you have a backyard, it is always wise to seal your windows and doors as it is always possible that the termites might enter your house when you are not around.
  2. Always clear any debris, wood that are damp from the soil and around it. These are perfect for termites to live in and strive. Soil sub-floor provide for a perfect nesting and food source for the termites. As such, if you have any timber or wood that are lying around your house, then it will create an avenue for termites to build their colony.
  3. Be sure to clean up and fix any leaky pipe or taps. As mentioned earlier, damp places are a good nesting spot for termites. Kitchens and your bathrooms are common areas in which you will usually spot the termites because of the presence of pipes and taps. As such, do make it an effort to constantly inspect for any leaky pipes or taps to better prevent against the termites.
  4. Have good ventilation and vapour barrier. This is to help reduce and minimise moisture from reaching your floor cracks. Moisture will be one of the biggest setups in ensuring and creating an ideal living space for termites. Thus, to prevent termites, it is best to destroy and not have any suitable space for them to breed and live.

Outside your home

  1. Remove woodpiles

Leaving wood stacks near your home will eventually invite termites as these stumps will become damp and rotten, becoming the perfect nest for termites to build their colony.

  1. Use termite treated timber for your garden beds walls and fences

Using termite treated timber is one of the preventive measures to better prevent against termite. Using these termite treated timbers, you can be more at ease that your wood is better protected against being a nesting ground for these insects.

bedbug 2nd spray logbook – 7 May

Chemicals — VIC 80 SC (spray); (gas) Newhunt total release aerosol

The visual inspection was 1 hour +/-. The inspector checked all mattresses, bamboo mat (not bed sheet). He checked behind the queen bed. He checked my empty backpacks in the wardrobe close to the infested queen bed. He checked curtains in the same room. He checked the wire casing.

Each time, he examined only (what I call) strategic location. Since he didn’t find any trace of bugs, presumably he didn’t go in deeper.

He also checked the other bedrooms but not the living room. He didn’t check any furniture, electronics, books or toys.

Q: what if another light infestation (a few bugs found, only on bed)? A: if you don’t want to engage a professional firm, then yes you can try some spray from your friend at the furniture shop.

bedbug task plan 7 May

–night before:
* luggage esp. the one below the queen bed
Action: bring down and open up for treatment, but the storeroom is really too far from beds to worry about.

— the morning:
* pillow and bedding — Action: wrap up. Can hot-dry later.
* bamboo mats — Action: big one spray. Small ones move out. Soft one hot-dry
* all other beds — Action: move in
* food items — Action: hide
* dish rack and open compartments around oven — empty
* things below queen bed
Action: spray
* wardrobe in room 1
Action: seal up if possible

So (For Monday) the only things “contaminated” are the beds, mattresses, big bamboo mat. Also, the floor, wall, window etc.

bedbug – early stage solutions

Pest Pro said chemicals are definitely required. They are fine to restrict to just one room, at the (obvious) risk of missing the bugs in other rooms.

Blk 177 furniture shop has low-cost pesticide $18/bottle. The owner said need to spray once a week for a few weeks to kill all the newly hatched bugs.

Dr Yii (Raffles Medical) said — In his army days, if bed bug found, soldiers put the mattress/bed out in the sun from morning to evening. Just once. Bed bugs would never show up again. This is experience, not science.

Dr Yii on Skin irritation from pesticide

In his army days, if bed bug found, soldiers put the mattress/bed out in the sun in the morning and bring back in the evening. Just once. Bed bugs would never come back again. This is heuristics, not science.

For a healthy person (including grandma), the skin reaction should subside gradually. Otherwise, blood test needed to identify other issues.

Sun radiation can aggravate the skin irritation.

Dr Yii pointed out two solutions:
A) ask pest pro to clean up. They should know how.
B) eye doctor or skin doctor

The government agency for toxic control is HSA.

–input from NEA
If you don’t travel a lot, then most likely they come from the neighbors. If building is not very old, then they don’t go through cracks but rather the corridor.

During hot and humid months bed bugs are more active. In recent years it’s May to Oct.

bedbug prep, master list

 Assumption — hazardous when sprayed on toys.
 If the spray is harmless to kids, then prep tasks below can be simplified to 50%. If infestation is light, it can reduce to 30%.
* inside cabinets/wardrobes/bookshelf
Action: Focus on master bedroom wardrobe. wrap in plastic bags and put back in there, so we can spray inside.
Action: For other locations, if too much work just keep them behind closed doors.
* coffee table with kids’ books
Action: wrap up, move away from sofa
* exposed items around sofa — bookshelf content etc
Action: kids’ items wrap up or cover
* food items
Action: hide
* dish rack and open compartments around oven — empty
* TV, laptop, ipad, fans, printer …
Action: cluster together and cover with plastic
* pillow and bedding
Action: put in dryer in the morning of the treatment, then wrap up
* luggage esp. the one below the queen bed
Action: bring down and open up for treatment, but the storeroom is really too far from beds to worry about.
* exposed items in Room 1
Action: cover

* books — I will assume a low_chance_of_hiding_bugs (OK?). We can’t spray on every page of my books.
Action: I will wrap into bundle or cover them during treatment. You could spray behind or around them.
* light toys — I will assume a low_chance_of_hiding_bugs. I can’t wash them in hot water. Some are hard to dry or un-washable. I don’t want to spray chemicals on toys either.
Action: I will dump them into plastic bags during treatment, or keep them behind closed doors
* heavy toys — I will assume a low_chance_of_hiding_bugs. Also too bulky to go into a bag
Action: will cover during treatment
* meimei clothes — in the master bedroom
Action: dryer
* towels and clothes hung in the wardrobe — I will assume the chance is lower
Action: put in dryer if we get a chance.
* blankets on top of the wardrobe– I will assume the chance is lower, since bed bugs won’t need to climb so high. So far, I only saw them on the beds.

Action: put in dryer if we get a chance.

bedbug+covid: marginalROI

k_bedBug_wisdom k_X_power_descriptor

See also post about heuristics bedbug heuristics:where, how many,spreading speed,weekly check

For the control freak, it is world-changing to realize that

  • A) One one hand, bed bug are indeed found “all over the places on your premise” such as books, toys, electronics, wall cracks, sockets. Some of these are hard to treat.
  • B) On the other hand, the statistics/heuristics tell us if you discover them early, before an infestation develops, they mostly hide on the bed and nowhere else.
  • C) To defeat your tireless effort completely, bedbugs can migrate from a neighbor or be brought into your premise any time, like a Poisson process, with a lambda in the magnitude of once a year. See the story about Rex cinema. Therefore, the perfectionist practices aren’t worth the effort.

Most of the professional advice and articles (such as http://www.bedbugs.umn.edu/bed-bug-control-in-residences/laundering-bedbug-control/) try to be thorough and knowledgable so they stress (A) and talk about  airtight containers \\ treating the neighbor homes \\ heat-treat your clothes everyday \\ immediately … They see bed bugs as invisible pollutants in a clean room

However, look at the marginal cost vs marginal benefit. For a light infestation, the diminishing return is staggering —

The “effort” includes the clean-up, preparation, (before spray) protection of books + children’s items, airtight containers .., tumble-dry every clothing+linen and seal them in air-tight containers, and moving out to hotel.

Bedbugs are as invisible as asymptomatic carrriers of covid19! They have been observed on (and therefore can hide in) any plastic, wood, fabric, paper, even metal. But this line of thinking ignores the difference in likelyhood. Fabric is 100 times more likely than metal to hide bedbugs! Let’s use covid19 as illustration.

  • 14D quarantine for every visitor can probably uncover 99.9% of the cases
  • 21D quarantine for every visitor can probably uncover 0.05% more but look at the cost on the millions of visitors worldwide.  Marginal cost is too high and marginal benefit too low!

Singapore MOT decided to relax the strict quarantine requirement for visitors from low-risk countries such as China (even more relaxed for NewZealand) to balance the prevention and survival of aviation sector, a pillar supporting the SG economy.

On a larger scale, a government can hope to achieve more “airtight” prevention by requiring everyone including new-borns to wear medical style full gowns outside their homes, but

  • at what marginal cost in enforcement and equipment?
  • at what marginal benefit? It will never be 100% airtight 🙁

Several Asian countries re-imposed covid19 lockdown for a week or two, not a month or two. Marginal cost/benefit is a key consideration.

I now prefer a philosophical view — bedbugs (along with other pests and hazards) are everywhere around us so we have no choice but coexist with them in peace. We can’t eradicate them. We need pragamtic treatments rather than aiming for 100% protection for 100 years. We can’t live in clean rooms or drink only distilled water. We need to embrace the small unavoidable risks like a light infestation.

Similarly, for covid19, we need to stop asking “is the vaccin 100% protective”. We need efficient treatments because some failure in protection is inevitable.

Assumption — hazardous when sprayed on toys. Under this and other “strict” assumptions, we have no choice but to
+ hot-dry every fabric item and seal up
+ spray every toy then wash each one later on — impossible
+ spray every furniture then clean each one later on
++ remove everything including heavy books from inside furniture to as to spray inside
++ move furniture off the wall to spray behind
+ somehow deal with the hundreds of books — impossible
Sadly, you can’t hire someone to sort your family belongings 🙁
So this level of treatment is probably needed for a heavy infestation, but with a single sighting, some people do the same, on professional advice!

bedbugs — high-chance places to spray

Let us please spray these areas more thoroughly. These are the most likely places to have bed bugs, ranked in order.

  1. Below the queen bed — where I used to keep an old laptop. In Mar or Apr some Simlim shop opened it and saw insects though I wasn’t there to witness.
  2. Behind Queen bed —  where we never checked
  3. Queen mattress — where we caught 2 bed bugs
  4. the lower compartment of the wardrobe in the master bedroom — where I used to keep the old laptop
  5. curtain in the master bedroom

Note this time round I have not seen a bedbug anywhere outside the queen bed, even when I checked after midnight. In contrast, during the 2014 episode I did find many bed bugs after midnight on, never around, each of my beds+sofa. I read that “Since they prefer to nest within about 15 feet (5m) of their host, you’ll probably find them hiding in tight spaces near your bed.” https://www.epa.gov/bedbugs/how-find-bed-bugs hints that bed bugs mostly hide at the bed, and in other parts of home if heavily infested.

To be practical, I have to assume some parts of a house are UNLIKELY to have bedbugs (including eggs):

  1. kitchen
  2. fridge, washing machine
  3. ceiling
  4. bathroom
  5. high up on wardrobe — I assume bed bugs don’t need to climb so high
  6. bookshelf
  7. books
  8. toys — ours are mostly plastic
  9. piano
  10. display cabinet in living room
  11. storeroom — ours is far from beds and there are no old laptops, bedding etc