Category: hazard

hazard, dangers including missteps

7dangerous habits #compliance

Posted on by tiger40490

k_X_compliance

  • [a_numeral = actual count of occurrences , without ambiguity]
  • — (risk of) injury, handicaps
  • [9 G3] crossing street esp. on bike(or foot), esp. at a RED light
  • [0] dangers with power drill .. In contrast, cutting mangos … is slightly less powerful
  • [0] surprise “attacks” on meimei -> hitting sharp objects or losing balance
  • — hurting someone’s feelings
  • misspeaking to a colleague with disrespect, in an unguarded moment.. In contrast, I’m more careful when writing, and misspeaking to a vendor is less damaging.
  • — other items
  • [3 G3] MLP __compliance__  misstep
  • [3 G3] Saliva flying to other people’s face, when I speak passionately… Mask can help
  • [2] My hand accidentally touching someone’s private parts, such as hips or thigh.

Note this list of habits are not all “missteps”.

##[23] fear@losing #EDyw^finger

Posted on by tiger40490

k_soul_search

Context: During and after the Bj15d trip, I was hit by multiple fears of “losing”, in every senses of the word, including but not limited to losing passport, losing wellness, losing a child,,,

Like the BBC program on ‘confidence’ or “resilience”, this bpost is an exploration of all senses of the word “lose”, hopefully fruitful. This bpost lacks a memorable title and may not last more than a year. Therefore the big list (not comprehensive or structured) of items are casual and random, not some “top 10”. I prefer sharp, highly specific items.

[z=zqbx required for self-improvement, self-motivation,,,]
[s=serenity needed in extra dosage, needed more than zqbx]

Aha observation: biggest category of the items in the bpost are about losing my body’s /capabilities/. As I said in the personal health^family bpost, among the top 2 most valuables, personal health is bigger than family. Losing family is a real tragedy, but actually most early humans (or modern-day primitive communities) and all adult animals are able to deal with it and move on.

— losing my cmmc channel with my son
— [z] losing bilingual vocab as I grow old … I rely on my English vocab for therapeutic or expressive writing,,,

I may lose fluency in one of my two primary languages, perhaps due to disuse.

My English and Chinese vocab is constantly “growing and /shedding/ leaves” like 2 gigantic trees.
— [z] losing my interview “muscles” and access to age-friendly WStC harbor

— [z] losing diet discipline .. as experienced in early 2023, up to Bj15d

[z] losing BMI and small belly … can be better or worse than losing muscle strength
[z] losing pull-up capabilities, due to weight or lack of maintenance
— losing appetite or good sleep .. look at grandpa. Now compare:
[s] EDyw [ losing my (nocturnal) erection] .. Wanting it badly but unable to get it is … hugely depriving.
Aha: In contrast, losing my sexual drive is not as bad as losing sleep and appetite.

— losing mobility .. like Grandpa
==== some of the vague, familiar, items or less impactful items
— losing one of my fingers .. In my 20s I used to tell my parents about this fear. This is statistically unlikely and usually due to accidents
This loss is worse than EDyw, because EDyw has a simple cure namely implants.
— [z] losing mobility .. grandma’s fear. Look at grandpa
— losing  eye sight, hearing, good teeth, not only due to aging
— [z] losing my comfortable income from epaJob .. see bposts on its best features. High probability and high impact.
— SGD losing strength .. possible after 10Y
Sg government losing control on inflation… is similar
— losing my connection with China or Singapore (citizenship privileges)… China system now treats me almost as a foreigner and I feel a loss.
— losing my nice commute due to job change
— losing $100k++ to hacker/scammer (specific[1]), due to my oversight, not bank’s fault, not market risk … Luckily, there’s plenty of public education.
[1] Note this is a specfic loss, in a specific context, not a vague item.
Beware of large cash balance in any of your accounts. Actually, illiquid assets[TD,stocks,,] are safer in this age of scams.

Look at all the efforts to earn and save. Is this kind of loss 可惜[pitiful]? I would say those efforts are worthwhile. If I lose money due to natural disaster, then I would not complain about the prior efforts.

Many individuals wished to make those personal sacrifices to save and invest, but they look at the hazard rate and decide the sacrifice may not “buy me much”. Hazards include (but not limited to) CPIx inflation, scams,,,, This negative attitude is reflected in the Quanlity|Hazard|Sacrifice mental blocks@longevity.

##dementia: G5modifiable risk factors

Posted on by tiger40490

I think this research is a good motivator, given that my mom mentions dementia frequently.

I doubt there’s consensus about the ranking among these items, so I will “mix in” what I know about my environment and self-knowledge. Here are some of the modifiable risk factors. Note age and genetics are not modifiable.

  • smoking and alcohol .. G3 factor
  • cardio::LDL cholesterol.. G3 factor
  • t2dm .. a G7 factor
  • cardio::hypertension .. G9 for me
  • overweight and inactivity.. G9 for me. Could affect mobility and isolation.
  • chronic sleep problem? G5
  • isolation? G5 IMO. I think going out of your lonely home helps. Mobility impairment may become a contributing factor.
  • hearing loss .. G7 factor

 

hsbc movie cards: operational errors

Posted on by tiger40490

k_short_term_mem_challenge

— operational risk 1: forget to bring Rev card when needed

This risk is more likely than risk 2.

Therefore, I will use Rev card to buy a new one, when I bring a “single-ticket” movie card to GV.

— operational risk 2: too many unfinished high-value movie cards, leading to “misplacement at home”

I think … 3… is still tolerable.

Better reduce the remaining values.

— operational risk: forget to bring movie card, but I won’t discuss it here.

##drug risk4boy: specific strategies

Posted on by tiger40490

Beyond drugs, there are similar bad influences in the U.S. community. Here are my practical strategies, in no particular order:

  • choose strict schools. Pay the price, but see luxury/special edu: unaffordable4%%middle class
  • join a class as an older student
  • Choose Chinese neighborhood like Edison (Honglin’s suggestion). Accept the long commute.
  • protect the bond with kids, so they open up to me when needed. Jack Zhang pointed out I need time for kids.
  • wife stay home to keep an eye on him for a while. During the formative years, mother has more influence than father. (If he needs constant monitoring, then consider SG.)
  • focus on what we can control; recognize and accept the things beyond our control.

#1 Biggest strategy — the parachute. When needed, be decisive to relocate back to SG.
I would then have no doubt that I need to work in SG for several years, perhaps at lower salary.
Accept that both kids could be delayed by a year or two, or consider international schools.
Philosophically, Even though every decision has consequences, we are not permanently locked into the emigration decisions.

#1 safeguard — both parents staying together. “If both parents stay with the kid, things won’t go too bad.”

#9 safeguard — SG extraterritorial penalty on drug usage is a deterrent for my kids. Can be a valuable restraint and deterrent.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/cannabis-drug-laws-outside-singapore-hair-test-cna-explains-2916026

— friends’ tips on drug abuse

  • XR said he would show pictures to his kids and drive home the reality about drugs.
  • In the U.S., my son could attend a religious school or charter school with strict control.
  • Jack said church would be a positive “force”.
  • Jack said drugs are more widespread in college than high school but I don’t know.
  • Jack said early intervention is key. The earlier parents try to help their kids quit, the easier it would be.

##eg: cross`road@bike: #1 misstep

Posted on by tiger40490

Impatience at “closing doors” or crowded escalators .. are less harmful.  Impatience at RED traffic light is a special case. It is the most dangerous case of impatience.

(Perhaps 5 seconds before reaching the junction), focus on breathing (deep breathing, hold it, and breath out. ) and muscle relaxation. Get off the bike or lean on something to help yourself relax.

Observe the body reactions [eye brow, breathing, faster steps]

self-talk.. engage the impatient self (sys1?). A wise man rushes not. Only a fool rushes.

Q: what if I miss a green light, and get stuck at this red for a minute? What does the 1 minute delay cost me?

classic misstep/mis-judgement

— too lucky… I have been TOO lucky over the numerous traffic accidents, and always escaped without injury.

I may benefit from a real injury, like my dad’s injury on a braking bus. The injury would teach me a lesson.

— This reckless behavior is more serious than most other threats (Over the last 30 years, I have consistently failed to recognize this elephant in the room)

  • Crippling injury while crossing street on bike is more serious than losing my job.
  • Becoming disabled due to crossing street is more serious than investment woes.
  • Losing my limbs (paralyzed from the neck down) is more serious than losing my marriage, custody,,
  • Losing any one limb is worse than conviction and imprisonment
  • Going through rehab after a road-crossing accident (assuming handicap) is worse than a PIP + humiliating bonus
  • Injury to a kid is worse than the kid taking drugs
  • A handicap due to road crossing on bike is worse than losing my memory capacity due to aging

This threat is bigger than just about every threat in my world, but failed to stay in the top 3, not even top 10 in my mind.

It was plausible to avoid U.S. simply because of illicit drug hazard. Similarly, I should consider giving up my bicycle simply because of road crossing.

==== changing my 30Y habit ..

Following dumb safety practice, we should make no judgement of traffic condition for potential crossing opportunity. Instead, start observing the hidden dangers[3], as advised by counsellor Lim. We don’t need to look left and right when our light is red. Instead we just wait, while observing the sky, plants and other interesting things around.

[3] A classic hidden danger and a pattern: At a controlled junction, even when I’m slow-moving while crossing a road, some drivers may be too focused on the traffic light to notice me. Many people are completely relaxed and inattentive when they see a green light.  Worse still, when I’m on crossing on bike, I’m faster, and it’s is even harder for drivers to notice me.

Unusual Sugg: if you see red light for pedestrians, but still want to cross the street, then better cross at a point away from the traffic light (which is red for pedestrians, green for drivers). The further you go from the traffic signal the safer. Drivers would subconsciously assume a child can dash to the road. Drivers are more alert, and would focus on the road rather than the green traffic light right in front. The green light tells driver to “relax” and ignore pedestrians.

Cognitive self-help to correct a deep-rooted (reasoning ) habit, which has moved from sys2 to sys1.  I guess this /battle/ is (to varying degrees) similar to the battles over gambling, punctuality, forgetfulness, flirting, recycling, disrespectful remarks,,,, where cognitive effort is in doubt. But right now I have no other means of self-help. Cognitive self-help is better than being helpless. I choose to believe in self-talk. “Change your perception/attitude through self-talk, and change your risky behavior.”

Counsellor Lim said people who self-talk are smarter, as proven scientifically. I guess these individuals are more self-aware, more observant, linguistically stronger (in whatever mix of languages they employ).

— reminders .. I assumed it was ineffective to remind my son about crossing road. How about the constant public reminder of drink-n-drive? I think it is not effective enough but better than no reminder.

We have cautionary reminders about wallet, phone, switch-off, locking door. They are effective for me.

sugg: reminder stickers in….

sugg: design passwords around road crossing

Sugg: ask wife and kids to give me specific reminders not generic ones

sugg: keep count how many times I waited at a pedestrian crossing red light even when there is no vehicle in sight.

Q: why I failed to learn from my real, serious mistakes in the same way as I learned with compliance, or with my exams?
A: I guess the realized painful consequence was still too light. Was I trying to play down the risk?

Perhaps a higher being has sent me a message repeatedly but I have ignored it.

Q: re the graphic, horrific photographs of human remains .. as shown on (Singapore) cigarette packaging and in 北京火车站 wall posters, are they morbid or necessary?
A: I think for someone who has been hit many times, these images may be the shocking, jolting, stomach-churning reminders he needs to stop his reckless actions.

==== analysis / pattern of sys1 risky behavior

  • red light for pedestrian.. When there’s pedestrian path, but no pedestrian traffic light, my sys1 feel less safe. It is actually safer because drivers know to stop.
  • At a blind corner, I (sys1) often proceed with over-confident misassumptions about what’s behind the corner.  The faster I ride, the less likely drivers can see me coming.
  • impatience and over-smart. See [3].
  • dumb pedestrians and dumb traffic light .. Cigna counselor pointed out the traffic light systems were designed based on evidence. They appear inefficient but they reduce accidents.
  • unnecessary judgement .. a habit of unnecessary judgement. Being a passenger is safer than driving because drivers need to make assessments and decisions.
  • the incidents were always involve my misstep, while the driver had a green light. At spots (eg: ChuliaSt) without traffic lights, most drivers become more /watchful/, though they still can hit a jaywalker.
  • sometimes I have limited visibility, and tend to assume “safe for me”. Other times I have visibility.

* at familiar and frequent hotspots, I often feel more bold/reckless, following a habit (sys1). I guess this category accounts for 90% of my reckless actions.
* At unfamiliar spots(many of the listed incidents), I also cross recklessly on bike, and sometimes on foot

— incidents: Cross street on bike, when cars doesn’t move after pedestrian light turns RED. I basically assumed it was still OK to cross !

  1. In Clementi (1994-98) I had one physical hit by a car
  2. Outside TPY stadium, I had the most dangerous near-death while crossing on bike, against a red light. My toddler boy was presumably on my bike. All of the visible vehicles were stopped, so I assumed no vehicle would be coming my way. In hindsight, I think those stopped vehicles might be waiting to turn right, or they could be slowly starting to move.
  3. In White Plains (2017-18), I (on bike) had many more street crossing attempts (dangerous!) when cars were starting and heading towards me.
  4. in Apr 2018, I was cycling from JC to Bayonne along Ocean Ave. There were many small streets crossing Ocean Ave, mostly quiet, so I quickly learned to ignore the red lights as I cycled down Ocean Ave. Then one of the junctions was not sooo quiet. I had a red light but I ignored it. From behind a blind corner a car raced towards the junction (as he had a green light). The driver managed to stop before hitting me !
  5. On Sunday 27 May 2018 I was cycling to north in NYC. My light turns green, so I went ahead to cross the street. But I also decided to cross to the west. Then a yellow taxi headed south. Lucky his speed was not too fast so he was able to stop a meter from me. In hind sight, subconsciously I felt crossing to the west was also under green light.

On foot:

  1. About 5-10 times till 2022, I often cross against Red on foot, only to turn back upon seeing vehicles coming my way.
  2. During CNY 2023, I was rushing from CapitaSpring to CapitaGreen to meet my friend Tianjue. Waiting to cross Church street. Traffic stopped due to red light, so I decided to walk across 5 lanes of stopped cars. The gaps between the lanes were too narrow for any car, so I dropped my guards. Then I was caught unprepared when a motorbike zoomed past right in front of me. I had to push on the passing bike to stop myself from falling onto it. The push was not hard enough to knock the driver down, but it was dangerous for both of us. I should have paid him $2000 compensation.

[20]steadfast focus@Protect` #短期 #bonding,optimism

Posted on by tiger40490

k_soul_search  k_tectonic

See also

This blogpost needs more sunshine, more Dram-refresh, like a 座右铭.

— Lee Hsien Loong said SG would zealously guard its competitive position. Singapore would lose the high ground to other countries after a few strategic missteps. I would say SG also need to protect the enviable covid19 situation, amidst worsening situations in most countries near and far.

Similarly, I now (2021) have a precious carefree ezlife to protect. We need protection against 1) strategic or smaller missteps 2) external threats and hazards

— during the pandemic

For the identiable protections, I’m willing to spend more money (+ some tcost) like tutors, relatively-healthy-but-expensive foods, nearby family outings (tcost),,. Make good use of the extra leaves.

  • protect my precious family harmony and protect my bonding with boy —
  • protect boy’s motivation, confidence, optimism — wordy problems are the most dreadful, basically clueless and hopeless
  • protect my precious wellness condition — diet, dental, endurance, energy, drive ,,, combined to demand huge commitment in absorbency + time. This protection can be enhanced at some $cost such as yoga classes and fancy fruits
    • Longevity of grandpa .. My health (more than my salary) is fundamental to the protection of dabao, meimei, ,,
  • protect my precious job — the PIP-green zone, health insurance, extra leaves, and numerous other precious features, work-life balance,
  • protect the satisfactory married life
  • protect my precious brbr
  • — some also-rans:
  • ? productivity at work or self-study? may need to take a back seat?
  • ? protect my carefree cash-flow situation. Perhaps should delay the U.S. plan
  • ? protect my interview readiness? I think I will NOT lose it so soon.

— G9 short-term factors contributing to my current carefree ezlife, half-ranked by … the amount of “sunshine deserved”

  1. grades .. acceptable over the last 6M
  2. U.S. job market .. golden escape pod over the next 4Y.
    • .. no immigration stressors
  3. marriage .. uneventful over the last 3Y
  4. family harmony .. reasonable after PSLE, over the last 6M
    • .. screen time conflict ? unabated
    • .. bonding with boy? improving
  5. blogging .. plenty of content and spare time, over the last 3Y
  6. salary and Brbr .. good percentile [SG cohort] for the last 2Y.
  7. workload .. one of the G2 short-term factors but less sunshine needed. Spectacular over the last 2Y.
    • .. plenty of leaves as buffers
  8. my primary lang@FT_job enjoys stability+robust demand
  9. —- longer-term facto, beyond this question:
  10. HDB home .. low maintenance over the last 5Y,
    • .. No pest, very few repairs
  11. health of entire family .. good over the last 2Y.
    • .. good sleep, no overweight,,
  12. IV-prep battery .. body-building over the decades, which offers protection over the next 3 to 10Y.

 

##misstep, 一念之差

Posted on by tiger40490

k_divorce ,,,, k_X_compliance

See also

This blogpost is about non-trivial missteps in general, and its darkest subset i.e. 一念之差 . Historically, I decided to group this blogpost with related blogposts in pff, so as to have a single tag “t_misstep”… Not purist, I prioritized cross-linking.

  • — — serious missteps
  • #1 [1pr] road crossing ..
  • #2 [1] compliance .. misstep at MLP (other jobs are less valuable)
  • [1pr] try drugs … if a young person decides to try drugs
  • [Lr] U.S. Immigration offense … (Negligence is not mis-judgement)
  • — — unlikely missteps:
  • [1Lr] confess.. if you confess something on camera or in writing, it can haunt you for a lifetime
  • .. criminal record in the U.S. system is the main focus. China’s 档案 system is even “worse”. confessions during Cultural revolution
  • [Lr] if you cheat on your spouse even once, she/he has enough reason to demand divorce. Half the times this decision (to cheat) is made without thought, perhaps under influence from alcohol.
  • [1Lpr] if you beat your wife or kids just once you can be convicted of domestic violence. The damning evidence could be nothing more than a single video footage or informal, private chat, taken out of context. Note U.S. court is biased in favor the the vulnerable like kids and housewives.
  • [Lp] [[鹰冠山庄]] a young man A was tricked into beating another young man. This was presented as evidence in court, so A was denied custody to his young son.
  • — — relatively mild missteps:
  • [1r] pre-existing .. if you let a doctor record in the medical record your own words about cholesterol medication, it can stay there forever and become a pre-existing condition
  • [1L] drunk driving .. if you are caught drunk driving, you would face penalties and get a police record. Even a passenger having an open alcohol bottle could be a damning evidence, but the penalty might be different from drunk driving.
  • [1Lr] (personal xp): trespass
  • (personal xp): 2013 A/C tubing installation
  • [L=need awareness of various legal implications]
  • [p=physical harm, including disability]

— Contrasting a few (up to 4) wildly different missteps can generate sparks and insights into ….

  1. road crossing .. the prime example in a bigger category, which includes drink-driving, speed driving,,,#1 biggest mega-threat in my entire “world”
  2. compliance .. biggest threat to my MLP job

—  key feature: $cost .. a misstep can cost tens of thousands, even threaten your barebones ffree. See the big picture in NAV 一辈子花不完@@ 3 factors
— [r=(almost)permanent consequences]  long shadow ..
* compliance offense .. shortest “shadow”
* divorce where kids are not involved .. relatively short shadow
—  [1=一念之差] (very) brief window for the decision maker, often under pressure, so no space for due diligence. A lot of times, the action was taken in an emotional overreaction.

  • classic example is my “trespass” experience. Similarly, reckless road-crossing can (and did) also get me into accidents.
  • divorce .. A single misstep can sow the seed — abuse; cheating
  • In some Islamic laws, divorce is concluded by the husband repeating some phrase 3 times. You could regret later, but the damage could be permanent [like re-marriage or punishment by the family]
  • Counter-eg: U.S. Immigration offense … often employer can remind you, so it is rarely a personal negligence.
  • Counter-eg: 2007 Dateline NBC https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/To_Catch_a_Predator. These decision makers had plenty of time… so not 一念之差.
  • Counter-eg: bidding war when buying HDB. Even if you make a rash decision and pay $1000 OTP, you have 14 to 21 days to think it over.. so not 一念之差.

 

G5 health issues in longevity individuals #heatmap

Posted on by tiger40490

Here are my top 5 health concerns in my 95-longevity plan.

Note death is only part of my concern.

  1. heart – variouis conditions add up to be the #2 killer in SG
  2. cancers in various organs – is the #1 killer in SG
  3. bones .. as CSY warned
  4. stroke – much lower in SG ranking
  5. Pneumonia – the #3 killer in SG

— SG: risk factors behind the most death+disability combined, based on http://www.healthdata.org/singapore

  1. tobacco
  2. t2dm (High fasting plasma glucose)
  3. BMI
  4. hypertension
  5. LDL
  6. alcohol

https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/ is a treemap/heatmap, where color represents growth rate, and area represents incidence measured in DAYLs. I chose Singapore Males 70+. Need to choose “Cause” and “Death”. This data is not published by Singapore MOH.

  1. heart including hypertension and various cancers are the biggest two causes of death.
  2. lower respiratory infections — is an infection, probably not chronic like cancer or COPD
  3. — Above are the big 3. Below are the other major items
  4. t2dm + kidney
  5. stroke
  6. Alzheimer’s
  7. hearing loss