健忘: error-free trips #realistic expectation

k_short_term_mem_challenge … k_mellow

We all hit forgetful accidents when we go out[1], and we end up losing personal items.

For many adults, as we grow older there will be more forgetful accidents.

I won’t surrender passively, but I won’t hold on too tight either. I think grandma has many such memory accidents since midlife. Grandpa also has some. They are normal individuals. Given my recent forgetful accidents, I really need to avoid carrying expensive items when going out such as

  • extra cash
  • expensive watch, jewelries
  • expensive phone or two phones
  • expensive specs

jolt: Somehow, the retainer loss ($200) felt less painful than pouch loss. Pouch loss requires lots of legwork.

— When hsbc movie card balance = 2, buy a new card but don’t carry both. Risk is running out of card balance by accident.
— on the go: avoid unnecessary checking .. on phone, wallet, laptop etc when outside home/office. Probability of “accident” is slightly worse when outside due to distraction, but cost of accident is significantly worse. Each time we check, an valuable object is at risk of loss or damage. Some item could drop into a bad location or break.

For 0.txt printout, accident is less likely as it is in a low-risk pocket?

— retainer .. don’t wear every day n night. Let the gum rest.
don’t ever leave it on the table, even at home. Develop a strong habit of always keeping it in pocket or container. If you think you are forgetful, then remove before going out.
— realistic expectation
Q: Out of 20 flights you take, how many percent of them would be error-free? What’s a reasonable target?
A: 75-80%. I once left behind jacket, hand luggage (Bali); and missed connecting flights twice; took wife’s passport;;;

Compare to other “experiments”, a flight is typically longer duration, with more moving parts and “error-prone” moments.

Q: Out of 100 commute trips, cinema trips, library trips, how many percent of them would be error-free? What’s a reasonable target?
A: 90<-95%. I often left behind phone, mrt card, wallet,,,

Q: Out of 10 family outings, how many percent would be error-free? What’s a reasonable target?
A: 85<-90%.

Therefore, it’s unreasonable to expect 99% error-free. An unrealistic expectation creates excessive pain, burden of guilt, burden of blame, zsms,

Analogy — in a bottling plant, 2% of the the liquid is spilled during the bottling process. If you try to reduce that to 0.1%, then your precision equipment would increase the cost per bottle by more than 2%, completely unworthwhile.

— [1] Some risk-averse individuals may choose to reduce going out. I have an alternative — travel light i.e. carry fewer expensive items. We can also carry cheap spares.

It’s worth pointing out — Even at home, I have lost some items due to misplacement, but so far nothing valuable.

— compare to exams .. in Shiyan and other top schools, many students aim for 100%. Takes years of practice. I think it’s worthwhile if the results actually determine your college admission.

In SG, for each subject there’s only A/B/C not 3-digit scores. Some forgetful accidents may not affect the grade.
— compare to software testing .. except calculators like tax or interest calculators, most realistic software systems can’t achieve 100% test coverage.

Unlike exams, software testing is not primarily about forgetfulness, because there’s a system to generate and track all corner cases. Therefore, the SWE who are less forgetful (about minor details) have an advantage that’s much smaller than in the China exams.