Repeatedly, I have found that Taleb’s criteria for black swan are way too complicated, abstract, with too many parts, and simply too long, for most lay public users of this metaphor. Therefore, users everywhere have rebelled (against Taleb), abandoned his criteria, and adopted simpler criteria. Therefore, imprecision and inconsistency (in criteria) is widespread.

The phrases “black swan” and “white/grey swan” have, to varying degrees, widespread usage in my blogs and in public domain, but horribly imprecise/vague. Not to deviate too much from original criteria, but also not to get bogged down by it, I will briefly contrast these 2 phrases as used in my blogs. Because white swans are less rare, there must be more examples of them, perhaps more in my blogs.

• —— Black swan events are  A) rare and C) massive[1], with lasting impact on communities, B) NOT easily predictable/foreseeable, even though official definition says “absolutely unpredictable/unforeseeable”
• eg: WSC harbor shrinks, but becoming less competitive thanks to web2.0 attracting young tech talents away
• eg: finIT domain losing pole position to web2.0 and other tech employers
• eg: epa job : WLB[workload, timelines, commute,,], appr [expectations, comp as an indicator]. I might settle down as a long-timer.
• eg: Blk 177 massive appreciation
• eg: SG tech teams adopting telecommuting, remote hiring, just like U.S.
• eg: MLP long-timers retrenched without obvious underperformance
• eg: difficulty for foreigner SWE to get Sg EP
• eg: rising salary at this age
• —— White (and grey) swan events are A) less rare than black swans B) easily foreseeable even without hindsight, but usually came as a surprise due to poor planning. I will add another criteria C) less massive
• eg: quick ascent of NUS and esp. NTU
• eg: China salary and rEstate levels rising too fast towards (or exceed) SG level, but work condition deteriorating
• eg: my marriage crisis
• eg: rate of marriage failure around me
• eg: 2022 peak in our intimacy .. rewarding, fulfilling, and then growing dependency on pills
• eg: credit events in my HY/PE, and Megaworld unscrupulous practices
• eg: covid19 as an earthquake
• eg: my family’s net asset [BVxD] growing fast by 300k/Y
• eg: hardworking colleagues let go for no apparent reason

By definition, there are more white swans than black swans in my life, but this phrase is too weak and unimaginative. I used this phrase only when comparing black swan event.

Unexpected success ..

— [1] massive impact .. I often say “little white swans” for less massive swan events. “Little black swan” is also plausible.

By default, and in common usage, black swans all have massive, lasting impacts on many people.