The Locus-of-control question — Q: is my current carefree high ground mostly due to (NN) 努力 i.e. effort or (XX) eXternal factors such as inborn talent, karma, dumb luck, timing without analysis etc?

This question is NOT academic or egocentric. Like the explanatory styles explored in [[learned optimism]], this perception-of-reality could shape individual behavior. NN answer leads to internal locus of control, and XX answer leads to external locus of control.

In reality, answer is never precise like 51% A + 49% B. Instead, I prefer a simple binary system — either mostly-NN or mostly-XX. Pattern: most of the success stories below hinge on personal effectiveness and self-management, rather than leadership or interpersonal capabilities.

— Warning: If you attribute success to NN or talent, you may sound cocky, conceited, vain
— How about the G5 personal winning bets? They sound like mostly luck. Well, For most of the winning bets, I had to work hard to make it a winning bet.
In general, I believe we can’t rely on PAST lucky bets. We face so many decisions at every stage of our life and have no choice but keep betting and keep improving our betting skill (analysis..)

Therefore, winning at these bets is mostly personal effort.

How about the poster child — the lucky investments? I think they are the exception that prove the rule. 1) You need analysis and accumulation of capital 2) Those who over-rely on luck is likely to lose it. Luck seems to favor the diligent.
— now the big list

• [d=conscious detachment needed]
• ==== sgCitizenship? XX [timing]
• ==== [d] stable marriage? mostly XX [luck] but some personal effort
• ==== academic achievements? Mostly NN, esp. in taking up MSFM.
• ==== emerging freedom from FOLB/FOMO (XR, CSY…)? NN [[analysis]]
• ==== my brbr, Fuller wealth, my cashflow high ground amid covid19 job insecurity? NN
• ==== MLP job
• — [d] excellent commute? mostly XX but I insisted on buying a location with short commute
• — [d] flexible hours? mostly XX but I also work weekends and evenings
• — [d] reasonable workload? XX
• ==== wellness
• — flexibility: above average for guys, due to NN .. huge uphill battle
• — no illness for years? XX
• — cholesterol under control? NN
• — [d] relatively few bone (+joint) problems? mostly XX but jogging improves bone density
• — [d] eyesight stable? XX
• — hair loss not leading to baldness? XX
• — memory aging not so fast? XX but I do keep my brain active
• — good sleep and vitality? XX
• — excellent heart health? XX
• — [d] excellent dental health? mostly NN
• — [d] excellent sexual health? mostly XX but exercise does help a lot

==== [d] BMI green zone?
— NN. Without a harmful starvation diet, reaching [1] a target weight is damn hard for everyone (exceptions are trivial) so I ought to seriously celebrate my achievements. I think this achievement is comparable to my c++ interview improvements or getting into UChicago MSFM program. 40% luck + 60% effort.

[1] “Reaching” means maintaining for 7 days. This criteria excludes crash diet and water weight effect. I stayed within 136.4 lbs longer than a week. Maintaining a target weight for 6M is even harder and is 99% effort, but let’s not digress.

Resilience against temptations? Tough efforts.

— XX (Let’s ignore those who don’t try to slim down.) Apparently, 20% of us can slim down to a healthy BMI. The #1 factor seems to be external.
Assumption: our effort levels are mostly comparable, but each “resistance” level is different. So those who make it are lucky. 50% luck + 50% effort.

In my case, the effort level is much higher than others.
==== cashflow high ground
— [d] barebones ffree? NN
— retirement planning? mostly NN with some XX [sgCitizenship]
— housing portfolio and reasonable plan? NN [analysis] with some luck at #04-116
==== career longevity and health
— slowly growing confidence with large codebase in greenfield or brown field? NN
— explosive demand for global tech talent? XX
— tech IV success? Mostly NN. I think many people have comparable talent but don’t have my position.
— [d] java? some XX [luck] but why am i head and shoulders above other candidates?
— c++? NN
— CIV? mostly NN though I had some innate talent which needed a lot of polishing.